Good Afternoon, I am certainly praying for all of you effected by the ongoing government shutdown. I have been there done that and it was no fun. So far the market has shook the shutdown off as it obviously thinks that it won’t last long. My thought is that the market won’t give the shutdown much attention until/unless it crosses the two week mark. At this point it’s anyone’s guess as to how long it might go on. There is definitely a lot of disagreement on some of the spending attached to the continuing resolution. I’m in the camp that’s for just keeping the government open and debating all those other issues on another day. Sure seems like common sense to me to do that rather than inconveniencing so may people. If something is a worthy issue now it will be a worthy issue later. As I said, the shutdown isn’t a big deal (for the market) now, but it will become one later if the issue is not resolved. What will spur that? Glad you asked. The first time any of the major credit rating agencies even mention the possibility downgrading the US credit rating. Folks. That is not good. That is really not good. So here’s for praying that the politicians will come to their senses before they hurt our credit. (not that we need to borrow additional money) Anyway, as I mentioned earlier the market currently believes the shutdown will be short lived and the market is usually right but when it’s wrong….. I don’t even want to go there. All I can say is that you better have nimble feet so you can dance quickly! So what else is the market focusing on? The next Fed meeting and it’s heavily anticipated quarter point rate cut. As most of you know, the government shutdown prevented the release of the September jobs report by the Department of labor which made the Fed dependent on the sometimes not so accurate ADP jobs report which was released last Thursday. That’s it!  That’s all! Right now it’s the best the have. Well that ADP report showed that the labor market had created less jobs than thought. This data clearly supports another rate cut in at the next meeting provided the Fed takes the ADP report seriously and honestly, what choice do they have? The next meeting is on October 28th and 29th. We will find out then. Those are the two elephants in the room that will determine where this market is going for the rest of 2025. Anything else is pretty much just a lot of noise. All that noted, your anxiety level should be low as the market is still trending higher. We will watch our charts as we always do and should that status change, we will sell. There is no anxiety for us. Just another day in the office….

The days trading left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +0.35%. Praise God I’ll take it. For comparison, the Dow slipped -0.14%, the Nasdaq added +0.71%, and the S&P 500 was up +0.36%.

S&P 500, Nasdaq close at fresh records to start week, helped by AMD gains

The most recent action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our TSP allocation is now +18.97% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.