Good Day, I got so busy with the big bounce this morning that I don’t have a lot of time left to write this blog. That’s Okay though because I made enough comments on our Facebook page to keep you informed on current developments. If you don’t already follow us there I would recommend that you do so. It is a good way to stay up to date on what we are doing in reel time. Moving on…… Today’s market should be a lesson and a reminder to everyone of you as to why we keep our focus on the long term trend. Friday, we had a big selloff and given the futures that selloff could have and would have continued had President Trump not made a favorable post regarding our relationship with China. Here’s the message we posted on Facebook after the sell off on Friday:
So….there was a lot of selling and turmoil on Friday. We did have a positive development with the Gaza peace deal, but it was over shadowed by new trade tensions with China. As you know President Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China in response to their tightening of rare earth minerals. The announcement resulted in the heavy selling of Tech stocks that are dependent on these rare earth minerals. Since these tech stocks now make up half of the S&P 500 and over half of the Nasdaq the market fell. There was no improvement in after hours trading on Friday evening. Many times investors will often sell before a long weekend as they are hesitant to hold stocks when there are geopolitical issues as we have now. When that is the case they will buy again after the long weekend if the coast is clear when the market reopens. As of right now, if there is no change, the afterhours selling indicates that there well could be additional selling on Tuesday. While the situation is Gaza (praise God) may be solved, we still have the government shutdown and new trade tensions with China creating significant headwinds for the market. If one our both of these situations don’t improve by Tuesday I think the selling will continue and if it does, we may be forced to move to the sidelines until these problems are solved. What concerns me about both of these situations is that there appear to be irreconcilable differences between the apposing sides. The only thing we can do is protect are hard earned capital if this continues. So watch the news closely for any developments in these areas and we will see what happens on Tuesday. Pray for our leaders and for our nation. These may be big problems but their not to big for God.
To summarize it we have two things determining the direction of the market. The government shutdown and our trade relations with China. Please take note. We didn’t panic and sell as many did! PANIC is not a strategy!!! We raised our level of vigilance. Took a look at our charts and formed a plan. Then we waited for todays open. The market bounced and we posted this message.
Wow, a strong bounce. This looks to be a monster day. We will see. Definitely not selling here. Those who sold Friday should not have done so. Remember, PANIC is not a strategy. Keep you eyes on your long term charts and ignore the noise! As long as the price is trading above the 50 day moving average you are still in the game!
Okay, so far we’re still having a good day. Here is last message that we posted: This situation is a lesson and those of you who are new to our group should take note of it! The majority of news is noise. That is the reason you must keep your eyes on the long term trend. Yes when there is a piece of news we may watch more closely to see how the charts react, but the last thing we want to do is make a long term decision based on a short term piece of news! Have a great day and may God continue to bless your trades!!!
There are two or even three lessons here. The first is how to deal with a market crisis in a way that will give you the best chance to successfully negotiate the problem. The second is that Panic is not a strategy. Think with your chart not your heart and the third is to never make long term decisions based on shore term information. All that said, the market is not risk free. Sometimes your going to get caught up in a situation over which you have no control. Our number one task as investors is to manage this risk in a way that we reduce it as much as possible and reduce our losses as much as we can. Our focus here at My TSP Guide has always been to preserve our precious capital. Our motto is “It’s not what how much y0u make that’s important. Its how much you keep!!”
The market will now put China on the back burner and focus on earnings season which begins this week, the government shutdown, and the Fed. Earnings are expected to be for the most part positive. As a result our expectation is that the market will continue higher, but as we have seen from this situation, it will not be without volatility. So don’t panic when the next crisis arises. Take a measured approach and make your decisions with the long term indicators on your chart! Oh yeah, and one more thing. NEVER quite praying!!! May God be with you all.
The days trading so far has left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment took a ding yesterday but it trading higher today at +2.15%. Praise God! We’ll take it. For comparison, the Dow is also trading higher at +1.36%, the Nasdaq +2.11%, and the S&P 500 +1.65%.
Stock market’s comeback rally gains steam with the Dow now up 600 points: Live updates
Recent trading has generated the following signals: C-Hold, S-Hold, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +15.15% not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 10/10/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.4040 | 20.7939 | 104.5568 | 98.1074 | 51.8659 |
| $ Change | 0.0023 | 0.0890 | -2.8994 | -3.1273 | -1.1401 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.43% | -2.70% | -3.09% | -2.15% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.33% | -2.41% | -3.34% | -2.76% |
| % Change month | +0.12% | +0.58% | -1.99% | -2.12% | -1.23% |
| % Change year | +3.46% | +6.75% | +12.51% | +8.83% | +23.80% |
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