Good Evening, Octobers action is the very definition of volatility! Stocks sold off hard again today. Just when we got our feet under us we are presented with an entirely new crisis. I guess that investors are supposed to anticipate every turn in the road if they are worth their salt, but who in the world would think that Saudi Arabia would be stupid enough to murder a political critic on front of the whole world! I think we should all get a break on this one. Also contributing to today’s slide was the Italian government which is attempting to pass a budget that exceeds EU guidelines. My understanding is that Italy is the third largest economy in the EU. So it’s probably has a significant impact there but I’m not so sure about here. The only thing I can come up with on this is when you add everything that is happening together it creates a slightly toxic atmosphere for stocks. Right now you have all this stuff including Interest rate increases/ the Fed, the trade war with China, a budget crisis in Italy, a strained relationship with the largest oil exporter in the world, and the uncertainty of the mid term elections. And remember this, if you didn’t learn this from the past, the market hates and I mean hates with a capital H uncertainty. You can take it to the bank and that’s a fact! So you have all this uncertainty verses a great economy, low unemployment, and stellar corporate earnings. It’s the dark side vs the light. We have squarely placed our bet on the side of the economy and earnings. I still believe we will be in the right place in the end. Nevertheless, you have to wonder just how many negatives can pile up before the bears can take us down. Nobody said this was an easy business….. God is still with us. Keep praying, be still and listen and He will guide you.
The days selling left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell -1.68%. For comparison, the Dow lost -1.27%, the Nasdaq -2.06%, and the S&P 500 -1.44%. It was a terrible day and there was nowhere to hide. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.47-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.26-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +3.29% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 10/17/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.8923 | 17.7263 | 40.1108 | 50.5918 | 28.8879 |
| $ Change | 0.0013 | -0.0190 | -0.0086 | -0.1844 | -0.1848 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.36% | -0.64% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | -0.17% | +1.53% | +2.46% | +0.84% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | -0.67% | -3.52% | -5.83% | -5.37% |
| % Change year | +2.26% | -2.15% | +6.65% | +4.39% | -6.38% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.966 | 27.4779 | 31.4023 | 34.1869 | 19.8021 |
| $ Change | -0.0104 | -0.0221 | -0.0506 | -0.0666 | -0.0443 |
| % Change day | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.19% | -0.22% |
| % Change week | +0.31% | +0.46% | +0.88% | +1.05% | +1.20% |
| % Change month | -0.81% | -1.29% | -2.66% | -3.21% | -3.68% |
| % Change year | +2.12% | +2.19% | +2.17% | +2.12% | +2.09% |
