Good Evening, The negative drift continued today. The same negatives continue to be a counterweight to excellent earnings and a great economy. Beyond that I can only speculate that investors are afraid to make any bets ahead of the midterm elections. They are concerned that leadership in the house or Senate or both may change and cause gridlock prevented further economic reform legislation from passing. Some of the gains we have enjoyed so far are predicated on a friendly business environment. I’m not taking sides in this blog but like it or not investors view a change in leadership as a negative thing when it comes to business. That’s my best attempt at explaining this mess. Either way it is what it is and sooner or later we’ll have to go with the charts. That said I’m not ready to throw in the towel just yet……
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back -0.36%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.50%, the Nasdaq gained +0.26%, and the S&P lost -0.43%. It was up and down during the day but the important thing is where it finished and that was down. One encouraging thing was that the Nasdaq was positive. Tech has been getting hammered and the green on the screen there could be a sign that the market is trying to put in a bottom. My guess now is that we’ll drift into the elections, but of course. that’s only a guess. I still believe we will ultimately rally into the new year. Therefore I will keep absorbing the pain. You can’t say the charts didn’t warn us of the weakness though…… I’m going to go with a quicker set of indicators once the New Year starts. It is my feeling that the next leg down could be of the 20% variety. So I want to sell first and ask questions later in 2019.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +0.51% for the year not including the days results. Folks we are definitely at a cross road here. We have a solid sell signal. So If you don’t feel comfortable holding at this point then you should sell before you go negative on the year. Fundamentally we feel like this thing is going to bounce but there are no guarantees in this business. The chart does not agree with the fundamentals. So I say again, if you are not comfortable with gambling at this point then get out and move to the G Fund. Here are the latest posted results.
| 10/19/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.8949 | 17.6907 | 39.5231 | 49.2314 | 28.6293 |
| $ Change | 0.0013 | -0.0307 | -0.0137 | -0.4989 | 0.1888 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.17% | -0.03% | -1.00% | +0.66% |
| % Change week | +0.06% | -0.37% | +0.04% | -0.30% | -0.07% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | -0.87% | -4.93% | -8.37% | -6.22% |
| % Change year | +2.28% | -2.34% | +5.09% | +1.58% | -7.22% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.9076 | 27.3542 | 31.1199 | 33.817 | 19.5561 |
| $ Change | 0.0006 | 0.0013 | 0.0018 | 0.0004 | -0.0009 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | +0.00% | +0.01% | +0.00% | +0.00% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.01% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| % Change month | -1.10% | -1.74% | -3.53% | -4.25% | -4.88% |
| % Change year | +1.83% | +1.73% | +1.25% | +1.01% | +0.82% |
