Good Evening, Last night we anticipated more pain this morning and that is exactly what we got after disappointing reports for Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG). Specifically it was the guidance in the reports that investors didn’t like. The poor guidance in reporting was definitely a drag on an otherwise good earnings season. Especially when the poor guidance can be linked to the trade war and increasing interest rates. I am still optimistic that we will catch a rally into the new year but I think we’ll have to get through the mid term elections unscathed to do it. I must admit, there are definitely more negatives than there were a month or so ago.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -1.36%. For comparison, the Dow fell -1.19%, the Nasdaq -2.06%, and the S&P 500 -1.73%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -2.26% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 10/25/18 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
15.9028 |
17.7432 |
38.6369 |
47.8724 |
27.6236 |
| $ Change |
0.0013 |
-0.0067 |
0.7047 |
0.9264 |
0.1704 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
-0.04% |
+1.86% |
+1.97% |
+0.62% |
| % Change week |
+0.05% |
+0.30% |
-2.24% |
-2.76% |
-3.51% |
| % Change month |
+0.21% |
-0.58% |
-7.06% |
-10.90% |
-9.51% |
| % Change year |
+2.33% |
-2.05% |
+2.73% |
-1.23% |
-10.47% |
| |
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
19.8112 |
27.143 |
30.6255 |
33.1706 |
19.1272 |
| $ Change |
0.0586 |
0.1219 |
0.2707 |
0.3504 |
0.2306 |
| % Change day |
+0.30% |
+0.45% |
+0.89% |
+1.07% |
+1.22% |
| % Change week |
-0.48% |
-0.77% |
-1.59% |
-1.91% |
-2.19% |
| % Change month |
-1.58% |
-2.50% |
-5.06% |
-6.08% |
-6.96% |
| % Change year |
+1.33% |
+0.94% |
-0.36% |
-0.92% |
-1.39% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund whipsawed back to a sell signal when the Wms%R moved into a negative configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
S Fund: The S Fund whipsawed back to a sell signal when the SCTR moved back under 40. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund:
F Fund:
And this is what a correction looks like. All we can do is wait for a new uptrend to start. The midterm elections will be crucial. If the market continues lower after that we may be forced to sell and call it a year…… Keep praying for Gods guidance. If you’ve been with this group from the beginning you know that He has never let us down! Give Him all the praise!!! That’s all for tonight. Have a great weekend and I’ll see you Monday.
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at [email protected].
