10/29/19

Good Evening, The market paused ahead of the conclusion of the Fed meeting tomorrow after posted a record high yesterday. I’ll tell you right now, all my charts and indicators are telling me that we have reached the next leg up in this bull market. This gives me a lot of confidence to say the least, but nonetheless, I must point out that a move higher is taking into account that we do not hit any landmines. So where are the landmines this quarter? They are pretty much the same as they have been albeit with a somewhat different twist. First of all is tomorrows Fed meeting. It is widely expected that the Fed will cut rates again. The announcement one way or the other will be made at 2:00 PM EDT tomorrow. If the Fed fails to make the cut this landmine will explode. Second are the Chinese trade negotiations. Supposedly, we are near an interim agreement. However it was announced today that the agreement may not be ready for it’s tentatively scheduled signing next month. This landmine will explode if the agreement falls back in any way. Thirdly, while the market has been for the most part ignoring the daily political drama, there is no reason to ignore this minefield. I’m just stating the facts and I hope not to offend anyone as my comments here are only related to how the politics relates to the market. There are several candidates running for President in the upcoming elections that either call themselves socialists or have socialist policies. Despite what some of these folks claim capitalism and socialism don’t mix. Period! The market is a capitalist institution. Even the mention of socialism has a negative effect on it. In the event that any candidate with the word socialist or socialism or with any policy that is considered to be socialistic in nature in their platform becomes favored in the presidential election this landmine will explode with great force. The explosion will most likely do irreparable damage to this bull market. It’s definitely worth keeping and eye on. That’s it! If we can avoid those pitfalls then we will finish with a nice year and begin a happy new year. As usual, we’ll keep an eye on the charts and see what happens.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back slightly at -0.08%. For comparison, the Dow slipped -0.07%, the Nasdaq -0.59%, and the S&P 500 -0.08%.

 

Wall St dips after S&P notches record, Fed on deck

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +9.50% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

10/28/19 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 16.2994 19.5833 44.2923 53.0199 31.1748
$ Change 0.0024 -0.0379 0.2458 0.3446 0.0363
% Change day +0.01% -0.19% +0.56% +0.65% +0.12%
% Change week +0.01% -0.19% +0.56% +0.65% +0.12%
% Change month +0.13% -0.53% +2.21% +2.55% +3.09%
% Change year +1.92% +7.94% +23.20% +20.56% +16.70%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 20.867 28.7956 33.5967 36.8078 21.4172
$ Change 0.0183 0.0303 0.0814 0.1060 0.0704
% Change day +0.09% +0.11% +0.24% +0.29% +0.33%
% Change week +0.09% +0.11% +0.24% +0.29% +0.33%
% Change month +0.62% +0.71% +1.56% +1.84% +2.09%
% Change year +5.98% +7.47% +13.36% +15.59% +17.49%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall Buy signal when it’s SCTR moved above 40. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund:
F Fund: The F Fund generated an overall Sell signal when it’s 5 EMA moved down thought it’s 50 EMA and it’s SCTR moved below 40. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I guess I have to say that I am optimistic given all the positive indicators. That’s no reason to quit praying though. We want to keep praising God for His guidance of our group! That’s all for tonight. Have great evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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