10/30/18

Good Evening, The market rebounded today as it is most definitely trying to bottom. I looked at a bunch of charts today and probably 60-70% of them looked like they were putting in a bottom. That is good and while a few traders were starting to nibble at a some beaten up stocks at bargain prices it still feels like the majority are holding back until the midterm elections are over. There appears to be a lot of anxiety over who will control congress. That said I believe the market seeks clarity and once it gets it will probably move higher irregardless of who wins. Although, I must admit that most investors feel that the current setup is business friendly. I guess we’ll just have to wait who’s elected and how the market reacts to it. Another thing that could help move us higher is if the Fed will chill a little bit on the talk of future interest rate hikes. Some investors are getting the impression that they are going to hike rates not matter what. They would prefer that the Fed be data dependent or in simpler terms wait and see what happens rather than increase rates automatically. As history will tell you the economy is not always what it seems. Just check out October of 1987 and you’ll see what I mean about that. Nevertheless, automatic rate hikes based on assumptions that the economy is strong enough to take it will most assuredly bring us down. It did when Alan Greenspan and company made 17 hikes in a row and it will do it now if the Fed fails to take a close look before they hike. Keep and eye on these issues and you’ll have a pretty good idea where we’re heading….. For now I’m all in…..

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a nice gain of +1.85%. For comparison, the Dow added +1.77%, the Nasdaq +1.58%, and the S&P 500 +1.57%. Praise God for a nice day in the green! It was our day today!

 

Wall St. rebounds as chip, transport shares surge

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -2.32% on the year including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

10/30/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.9093 17.7468 38.3142 47.8419 27.6943
$ Change 0.0013 -0.0292 0.5944 0.8772 0.0535
% Change day +0.01% -0.16% +1.58% +1.87% +0.19%
% Change week +0.03% -0.22% +0.91% +1.20% +0.62%
% Change month +0.25% -0.56% -7.84% -10.95% -9.28%
% Change year +2.37% -2.03% +1.87% -1.29% -10.25%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.8016 27.1175 30.5584 33.0829 19.0698
$ Change 0.0465 0.0973 0.2165 0.2800 0.1844
% Change day +0.24% +0.36% +0.71% +0.85% +0.98%
% Change week +0.19% +0.27% +0.52% +0.62% +0.70%
% Change month -1.63% -2.59% -5.27% -6.33% -7.24%
% Change year +1.28% +0.85% -0.58% -1.18% -1.68%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund whipsawed back to a Neutral signal when the Wms%R moved into a positive configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
S Fund: The S Fund whipsawed back to a Neutral signal when the SCTR moved above 40 and the Wms%R moved into a positive configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund:
F Fund:

I say again, a lot of charts look to be bottoming But remember one thing. Bottoming is a process and no process is pain free. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades.

God bless, Scott 8-)

 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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