10/02/14

Good Evening,

The market fell early in the session and recovered in the afternoon. For the most part the day was nothing to write home about. However, there was one bright spot as small caps out performed with the Russell 2000 gaining over 1%. The S fund which is comprised of quite a few small caps managed a gain of +0.47% which ended it’s wicked slide. Many small caps have been in official correction territory meaning that they have dropped over 10% from their recent highs. All that said, the intermediate term trend is still down and that must be respected. Both TSP and AMP where flat today as we are carrying all or mostly cash in both.

US Stocks Avoid a Fourth Straight Losses

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is currently -5.82% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:

10/01/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.5373 16.5562 25.5425 33.5665 25.0816
$ Change 0.0008 0.0707 -0.3404 -0.5025 -0.2112
% Change day +0.01% +0.43% -1.32% -1.47% -0.84%
% Change week +0.03% +0.54% -1.83% -2.67% -1.37%
% Change month +0.01% +0.43% -1.32% -1.47% -0.84%
% Change year +1.75% +5.17% +6.98% -0.31% -1.89%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.219 22.4001 24.141 25.567 14.4723
$ Change -0.0367 -0.1332 -0.1872 -0.2316 -0.1494
% Change day -0.21% -0.59% -0.77% -0.90% -1.02%
% Change week -0.31% -0.90% -1.19% -1.39% -1.59%
% Change month -0.21% -0.59% -0.77% -0.90% -1.02%
% Change year +2.39% +2.77% +2.91% +2.95% +2.91%
We had no signal changes today so we’ll take a look at the C Fund. Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com
The C Fund is still a solid sell signal as I annotated yesterday. While price didn’t drop today, it did close below the 100 EMA for the second consecutive day and continues to drag the 5 and 20 EMA’s down further. Without a significant improvement in price, the 20 EMA will pass through the 50 EMA in a few days, signaling further deterioration in the chart. The PMO entered neutral territory today, but still has a long way to go before it becomes oversold. We’ll keep an eye on that 20/50 EMA crossover. Right now the trend is down and we must respect it.
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Nothing really new to add tonight. Again, the intermediate term trend is down. We’ll watch the charts to see if it deteriorates further into a long term decline of if it can bounce. Small caps did make a little run today, but it’s hard to tell if that’s an oversold bounce or something new. Only time will tell. We’ll keep our powder dry and stay ready for action when it comes. We could really benefit from some further downside before things turn back up. That’s all for tonight. Keep praying and trust God to guide our hand. Have a nice evening. See you tomorrow. God bless,
Scott8-)


Written By

Scott Grimes

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