Good Evening,
The third bounce is failing. The market had another miserable day. Good! This is what we need! Finally, this is some action you can get excited about! The more it goes down, the more money we’re going to make in TSP and AMP. I wonder how all the self proclaimed market geniuses are feeling now. You have read it right here since 2009! These people think they are all that because the market kept rolling up, induced by the unending FED money. That is, unending until now. Proverbs 16:18 Tells us this: Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall. Now, let’s see how they do without their safety net. I can tell you this, they are starting to feel the pain right now. What they have been doing will no longer work. Go ahead, buy and hold now and see how you like it! No, this market will again take some skill, just as it used to. Oh, how the mighty have fallen! I thank God that He has remained with us throughout. To Him be the glory! Last night we annotated the chart for the I Fund and talked about its relationship to the US markets and why it is important for us to watch it. Here were the headlines when I woke up this morning: European Markets are down and America’s Follow Suit at the open. Dow slips 100 points and Nasdaq slides 0.6%. And how much money did we lose? Almost none, by the matter of fact, we made just a little in TSP. To God be the Glory!!! Remain humble, listen that small still voice and He will show you how he has favored our group over the years!
US Stocks Slide on Global Growth Concerns
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -5.79% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 10/06/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5421 | 16.5627 | 25.7904 | 33.864 | 24.7696 |
| $ Change | 0.0029 | 0.0270 | -0.0398 | -0.1759 | 0.2110 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.16% | -0.15% | -0.52% | +0.86% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.16% | -0.15% | -0.52% | +0.86% |
| % Change month | +0.04% | +0.47% | -0.36% | -0.60% | -2.07% |
| % Change year | +1.79% | +5.22% | +8.02% | +0.57% | -3.11% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.2376 | 22.4379 | 24.1936 | 25.6337 | 14.5105 |
| $ Change | 0.0056 | 0.0138 | 0.0147 | 0.0130 | 0.0092 |
| % Change day | +0.03% | +0.06% | +0.06% | +0.05% | +0.06% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.06% | +0.06% | +0.05% | +0.06% |
| % Change month | -0.10% | -0.42% | -0.55% | -0.64% | -0.76% |
| % Change year | +2.50% | +2.95% | +3.13% | +3.22% | +3.18% |
Let’s take a look at the C Fund. We mentioned last night that the poor action in the I Fund could have an influence on US markets. It turned out to be prophetic. (All Charts Courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
This chart is now a solid sell. The trend is down. The 20 EMA crossed down through the 50 EMA which is bearish. It is now trading 1935.10 which is below the 100 EMA, but still above the 200 EMA. Resistance is now set at the August low in the 1905 range. If that is breached, the next possible resistance will be near the May low in the 1850 range. The PMO is now entering overbought territory and is at resistance after today’s action. A short term bounce is possible. However, the PMO does not appear to be slowing its descent at this time. Based on that, I would expect some more downside. The Williams %R has turned down, setting a lower high which is short term bearish as well.
It is possible that we could see a dead cat bounce tomorrow, but based on the charts that I am looking at, I fully expect some more downside. I don’t think that we’ve seen the bottom just yet. That is not all bad. Some more selling could give us an even better entry point when things do decide to look up. For now, we need to stay vigilant and watch our charts for a bottom. Above all, we must be patient and avoid getting sucked into a bull trap. How do we do that? We wait for a solid buy signal and nothing less before we even stick our toe back in the water. We are in the right place and God is with us. Be sure and give Him the praise! Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott
