10/12/17

Good Evening, The market stayed even for most of the day and then finally succumbed to the negative sentiment caused by reports from two of the large banks, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley. Both banks beat estimates on both the top and bottom lines. However, according to the media, investors were spooked when both banks said they set aside more money to cover credit card failures. As far as I’m concerned it’s typical October trading so I’ll just keep watching my charts and take the news with it’s usual grain of salt.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.05%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.14%, the Nasdaq 0.18%, and the S&P 500 -0.17%.

 

Wall Street slips as banks fall after results, AT&T sinks

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. I have recently been asked why we moved back into the S Fund when the I Fund had been working so well. I will answer that question. We moved to the S Fund for two reasons. The first is that our charts tell us that the dollar is likely to strengthen again canceling out to a large degree the advantage we have been enjoying in the I Fund. Secondly, if you couple that with the fact that November and December are historically the best time of the year for small caps then it is probable that the S fund which is made up of small and mid caps will out perform the I fund during that time period. While the valuation of foreign stocks and particularly European stocks are better than those of domestic stocks I feel that that advantage is negated over small caps by the season of the year. With our charts supporting this logic, we made the move to the S Fund….. Please note that I have including an annotated chart for the dollar below showing why I think it will reverse and become stronger.

 

Our allocation is now +15.27% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

10/11/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.4601 18.0388 35.7938 46.7921 29.8837
$ Change 0.0010 0.0015 0.0650 0.0173 0.0350
% Change day +0.01% +0.01% +0.18% +0.04% +0.12%
% Change week +0.03% +0.17% +0.24% -0.15% +1.03%
% Change month +0.07% +0.02% +1.49% +1.22% +0.97%
% Change year +1.80% +3.38% +15.94% +14.14% +21.47%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.3058 26.3918 29.8895 32.4262 18.72
$ Change 0.0065 0.0148 0.0266 0.0333 0.0215
% Change day +0.03% +0.06% +0.09% +0.10% +0.11%
% Change week +0.12% +0.18% +0.28% +0.32% +0.35%
% Change month +0.31% +0.52% +0.82% +0.96% +1.08%
% Change year +4.86% +7.82% +11.38% +13.10% +14.67%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
U S Dollar: As you can see. There is an annotated Head and Shoulders reversal pattern as the bottom of the chart. If this pattern executes and I believe it will, the dollar will reverse course and strengthen. A stronger dollar will shrink the current advantage that foreign stocks have over domestic stocks. To put it simply, the S Fund will outperform the I Fund. Of course, if our analysis is incorrect and this doesn’t take place we should still end with a nice profit for the year. That said we strive to make the most profit we can safely. You can’t win them all but we try……
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
OK there you have it. Above I have outlined our plan and why we are doing it. As I always say when I put out the alerts, if what your doing is working for you or you are just simply more comfortable with it then keep doing what your doing! Nonetheless, whatever you do, make sure you remember our motto here at My TSP Guide. “Its not what you make that’s important, it’s what you keep.” That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 09/08/25

    Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price…

  • 09/01/25

    Good Afternoon, Happy Labor Day! I hope this note finds you enjoying some fine cuisine fresh off the grill! Well here we are starting a new month. The dreaded month of September. The weakest month for the stock market since the 20’s and here we are 100% invested in equities. What gives? First of all…

  • 08/24/2024

    Good Afternoon, We talked last week about Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming being a possible inflection point for the market and that’s exactly what it ended up being. The Fed chairman gave a somewhat dovish address in which he noted that  “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting…