Good Evening, The three major indices moved up today, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Breadth was terrible with declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.10-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The trading range was extremely tight with the exception of biotech stocks which sold off in lock step after President Trump made some negative comments about drug pricing. Many health care stocks took a hit as well when President Trump cut of government subsidies to Obama Care insurers. The result was a sector rotation with money moving out of biotech and health care and into the tech sector. That explains the narrow trading range that occurred. While there was some movement under the surface, there was very little movement in the major indices.
The trading today left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment finished flat at +0.03%. The Dow added +0.37%, the Nasdaq +0.28% and the S&P 500 +0.18%.
Today’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +15.11% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 10/13/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.462 | 18.0961 | 35.7688 | 46.7262 | 30.0628 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | 0.0397 | 0.0321 | -0.0338 | 0.1269 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.22% | +0.09% | -0.07% | +0.42% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.49% | +0.17% | -0.29% | +1.63% |
| % Change month | +0.08% | +0.34% | +1.42% | +1.08% | +1.58% |
| % Change year | +1.81% | +3.71% | +15.86% | +13.98% | +22.20% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.3159 | 26.4106 | 29.9188 | 32.462 | 18.742 |
| $ Change | 0.0099 | 0.0207 | 0.0352 | 0.0437 | 0.0275 |
| % Change day | +0.05% | +0.08% | +0.12% | +0.13% | +0.15% |
| % Change week | +0.17% | +0.25% | +0.37% | +0.43% | +0.47% |
| % Change month | +0.36% | +0.59% | +0.92% | +1.07% | +1.20% |
| % Change year | +4.92% | +7.90% | +11.49% | +13.22% | +14.80% |
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund: The F fund generated an overall Neutral signal when the PMO and MACD moved into positive configurations. I’m not reading too much into this with and SCTR of only 16.8. It’s likely a result of investors moving temporarily into safe havens as small caps have been hammered just a little in recent weeks.
I’ll be the first to admit that small caps have under performed the past two weeks and that the under performance has led to a weaker S Fund. However, the fact remains that the coming two months are the strongest months of the year for small caps. Also we have to remember that part of our strategy has to do with the I Fund being pressured by a stronger dollar. That still appears to be setting up as we anticipated. So the real choice remains Small/Mid caps (the S Fund) or Large Caps (the C fund). Folks, I can’t remember when the Dow and the S&P beat the Russell 2000 in November and December. No, I’m sticking with the horse I’m on even if it did stumble out of the gate. I believe it can make up the lost ground and then some. We will see… That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
