10/17/17

Good Evening, The Dow touched a record intraday high today and the media got excited. That’s nice but as I’ve said many times the Dow is a poor indicator of what is going on in the market. Today was a great example. While the Dow posted a gain of +0.18% after backing off of a record high, the rest of the market did not fare as well. Breadth today was again not good. During the session, declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.37-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.72-to-1 ratio favored decliners. So why did the Dow show a gain? That’s simple, It’s made up of 30 large cap blue chip stocks most of which were obviously gainers. One could even argue that the Dow is really a poor indicator of market health as large cap stocks are usually the last one’s to sell off during a decline. As I have repeated many times, the S&P 500 is a far better indicator and if you really want the total picture you also need to follow the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq.

The days trading left us  with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.19%. For comparison the Dow added +0.18%, the Nasdaq was flat at -0.01%, and the S&P 500 gained +0.07%.

 

Dow pierces 23,000 but finishes below milestone

The days trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +14.90 % for the year. Here are the latest posted results:

 

10/17/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.4658 18.0827 35.856 46.6423 29.946
$ Change 0.0010 0.0094 0.0238 -0.0996 -0.1268
% Change day +0.01% +0.05% +0.07% -0.21% -0.42%
% Change week +0.02% -0.07% +0.24% -0.18% -0.39%
% Change month +0.10% +0.26% +1.67% +0.90% +1.18%
% Change year +1.84% +3.64% +16.14% +13.77% +21.72%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.3184 26.4123 29.9176 32.4584 18.7387
$ Change -0.0031 -0.0099 -0.0212 -0.0282 -0.0193
% Change day -0.02% -0.04% -0.07% -0.09% -0.10%
% Change week +0.01% +0.01% +0.00% -0.01% -0.02%
% Change month +0.38% +0.60% +0.92% +1.06% +1.18%
% Change year +4.93% +7.90% +11.48% +13.21% +14.78%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:

 

Small caps continue to suffer but we’ll stay the course. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and I’ll see you tomorrow!

God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 09/08/25

    Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price…

  • 09/01/25

    Good Afternoon, Happy Labor Day! I hope this note finds you enjoying some fine cuisine fresh off the grill! Well here we are starting a new month. The dreaded month of September. The weakest month for the stock market since the 20’s and here we are 100% invested in equities. What gives? First of all…

  • 08/24/2024

    Good Afternoon, We talked last week about Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming being a possible inflection point for the market and that’s exactly what it ended up being. The Fed chairman gave a somewhat dovish address in which he noted that  “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting…