Good Evening,

Wow! All I can say is wow. Is God blessing us or what!! Give Him all the Praise for He is worthy! Wow….The market gained over 1% and we made half that again in TSP and double that in AMP. To God be the glory! The consumer confidence rating came in at 94% which is the highest that it’s been in forever and the market loved it. It over-shadowed everything else and lit a fire under all the major indices. Small Caps were scorching hot. We had one fund in AMP that gained over 3%. That’s right, 3% in one day! You AMP participants check your accounts. You’re going to be happy tonight. TSP participants should already know that you had a great day too with the S Fund Gaining 2.01%. So, now that we’ve had this mega run, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some back filling tomorrow. Action this hot will always come at a price. However, it could be an interesting day as the results of the FED meeting will be released at 2:00 PM in the afternoon. Most of the FED meetings we’ve had this year have been a catalyst for the market with the exception of the one in September which triggered the deepest correction in the year. I don’t think we’ll see another correction, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little sell the news reaction. I fully expect some consolidation of these gaudy gains. If my analysis is correct, then we should resume the march higher into the holidays, albeit at a slower rate of ascent.  

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Wall St. jumps 1 percent, S&P ends above key level

 

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The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 30/C, 70/S. Our allocation is now -5.10%, not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:

10/27/14
Fund	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
Price	14.562	16.6953	25.7708	34.2206	24.4127
$ Change	0.0029	0.0166	-0.0384	-0.0801	0.0369
% Change day	+0.02%	+0.10%	-0.15%	-0.23%	+0.15%
% Change week	+0.02%	+0.10%	-0.15%	-0.23%	+0.15%
% Change month	+0.18%	+1.27%	-0.43%	+0.44%	-3.48%
% Change year	+1.92%	+6.06%	+7.94%	+1.63%	-4.51%
	L INC	L 2020	L 2030	L 2040	L 2050
Price	17.2578	22.4324	24.1786	25.615	14.4898
$ Change	0.0005	-0.0053	-0.0097	-0.0138	-0.0090
% Change day	+0.00%	-0.02%	-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.06%
% Change week	+0.00%	-0.02%	-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.06%
% Change month	+0.01%	-0.45%	-0.61%	-0.71%	-0.90%
% Change year	+2.62%	+2.92%	+3.07%	+3.14%	+3.03%

Let’s take a look at the red hot S Fund (All Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com)

I have annotated this chart heavily to help you recognize some of the important areas. This chart tells the whole story. This is what is going on. Small caps led us down and now they are leading us up. The really important thing to take away from this chart is that it has regained its footing above its 50 and 100 EMA. This chart is trending up and still has room to run. If you have hesitated, it’s not to late to buy. You can still get in on the fun!

If I had to make an assessment of our fall strategy, I would have to say that it is ahead of schedule. I correctly anticipated the run, but I didn’t anticipate the early strength of it. I had not expected us to be where we are now until mid November at the earliest.  We’ll have to keep a close eye on our charts to make sure that the rally doesn’t get exhausted. Of course that will be when price encounters the first overhead resistance that we have denoted on our charts. Once again, that’s not to say that we can’t go higher, just that it would be a good idea at that time to take some of our chips off the table to preserve our gains. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!

God bless,

Scott