Good Evening,

The FED meeting came and went and the market yawned. The meeting went as anticipated with the FED ending its bond buying program better known as QE III and keeping interest rates low “for a considerable time”. That last statement “for a considerable time” was really the only thing that could have upset the apple cart. When the first FED meeting comes where that statement is eliminated you’d better be in cash. Never mind that nothing would be said about interest rates being raised, the omission of that statement alone will be enough to send tremors through a market that is clearly addicted to cheap money. There is little doubt that when the rates go up, the market will have withdrawal symptoms…. Today the market failed to show much back filling with the Dow and S&P both slipping back less than -0.20% after yesterday’s big run. Our task now will be to watch our charts closely for signs of deterioration after today’s news. So far so good though, as all I am seeing is some healthy consolidation. A little more of that wouldn’t be a bad thing before we head back up. Bull markets usually accomplish consolidation either by selling off or moving sideways so there is really nothing to be concerned about at this juncture. 

US STOCKS-Wall St ends with modest decline after Fed

 

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The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 30/C, 70/S. Our allocation is now -3.38% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:

10/28/14
Fund	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
Price	14.5629	16.6782	26.0786	34.9306	24.6042
$ Change	0.0009	-0.0171	0.3078	0.7100	0.1915
% Change day	+0.01%	-0.10%	+1.19%	+2.07%	+0.78%
% Change week	+0.03%	+0.00%	+1.04%	+1.84%	+0.94%
% Change month	+0.18%	+1.17%	+0.76%	+2.53%	-2.72%
% Change year	+1.93%	+5.95%	+9.23%	+3.74%	-3.76%
	L INC	L 2020	L 2030	L 2040	L 2050
Price	17.2998	22.571	24.3746	25.8596	14.6458
$ Change	0.0420	0.1386	0.1960	0.2446	0.1560
% Change day	+0.24%	+0.62%	+0.81%	+0.95%	+1.08%
% Change week	+0.25%	+0.59%	+0.77%	+0.90%	+1.01%
% Change month	+0.26%	+0.17%	+0.19%	+0.24%	+0.16%
% Change year	+2.87%	+3.56%	+3.90%	+4.13%	+4.14%

Let’s take a look at the C Fund. (All charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)

The C Fund continues to trade within its ascending channel. All indicators on this chart indicate further uptrend. Resistance is set in the 2020 range. It is likely that price will stall there. As usual, I have annotated points of interest on the chart.

This market continues to show exceptional strength. However, as with any rapid price ascent, we must watch our charts for signs of exhaustion. Also of note, price traded up a day after the last FED meeting before giving way to the deepest correction of the year. My thought is that it won’t happen again as that was in September which is statistically the worst trading month of the year. Conversely, we are now entering two of the three best months of the year with the other being March. You shouldn’t hang your hat on seasonality, but you need to understand that it does indicate favorable conditions if everything else is in line. Not to be redundant, but the hard part of this trade was completed in finding an entry point into this rally which we successfully accomplished. Our main task now is to set it on cruise and monitor our charts for the current trend to change. God continues to bless our group. I will be surprised if we get out of this difficult year without some kind of profit. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening.

God bless,

Scott