11/03/2022

Good Morning, Oh my what a frustrating market. I said already and I’ll say it again. It is the hardest market I can ever remember trading and my results bear it out. I have never in over 30 years of doing this failed to out perform the S&P 500. Those of you that have been with me since 1997 know that to be a fact. So why bring it up? Something has changed and if I knew for sure what it was I certainly would not be so far in the hole in 2022. The only thing I can even remotely guess that it could possibly be is increased market manipulation by the Fed and others and that’s just a guess. I do know this. In all my years of trading I have never seen it be beneficial to change what your doing in mid stream. I have also not found it to be beneficial to mix systems. That noted, I’m going to continue to do my best to be flexible within the system that I run. Yesterday afternoon the market reacted violently to Jerome Powell’s press conference. You already know my thoughts on that. The resulting selloff caused our main market chart and indicators to whipsaw to a sell signal surpassing a neutral or hold signal on the way. Folks these are good indicators but they only tell us what the market is doing and quite frankly the market never behaved just like this before. The continued high volatility is unprecedented. I believe it is directly related to the unwinding of the Federal Reserves stimulus program. I know there are a few economists in our group. I would welcome your views on this. It would be tremendously helpful to know how this is effecting the market. So if you were ever thinking about commenting here now would be a good time to do so. So where do we go from here? I am inclined to think that fundamentally speaking next weeks midterm elections could possibly give the market a boost. After being whipsawed three times already in 2022 I am not anxious to make it four. I must be honest with you and tell you that many of my charts are now pointing to a decline from here. Nevertheless, my chart for the S&P 500 (C Fund) remains in a bullish wedge pattern which is the strongest pattern that I know of. I’m looking for an excuse to stay invested in the market through the election and this is the one I decided to hang my hat on. If ever I was going to ride with a chart pattern this is it. It is the most reliable patter that I know of and is somewhere in the 90% range of accuracy in determining an uptrend. I will point out that also means at least a ten percent change that the pattern will not execute favorably. So I have decided to ignore the trend model and stay invested at 100/C on the Strength of three things. The favorable Season (Nov/Dec), the election, and the bullish wedge pattern on the chart for the C Fund. Folks this is a high risk environment and if your not comfortable with that then I would recommend that you go with the trend model and sell. As for my self, I intend to stay invested this time around. I’m done getting whipsawed! Have a nice afternoon and may God bless your trades!

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