11/08/18

Good Evening, The market traded moderately lower today after yesterdays stellar bounce. There were a couple issues that put added pressure on the day. The first was the Fed Statement that was released for this weeks meeting. Many investors were hoping that the Fed would include language in the report putting some doubt as to whether or not the rate increases will be automatic in 2019. In other words they were looking for data dependent if not in those exact words. They felt that given the October correction that the Fed should put some language in the report to indicate that a slowing economy would in turn slow the rate of interest rate increases. That didn’t happen. The second issue was energy prices which have been dropping with crude oil actually entering bear territory defined as a drop of 20% or more. That is self explanatory. I talked about the fact that this rebound wouldn’t just go straight back up and this is what I meant. It’s going to take a little patience to get this correction back but I’m fairly confident that we will fully recover before the end of the year.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back -0.48%. For comparison, the Dow was up slightly at +0.04%, the Nasdaq lost -0.53%, and the S&P 500 gave back -0.25%. Praise God that we kept most of yesterdays gains!

 

Wall Street falls after Fed statement, energy shares tumble

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +2.79% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

11/07/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.9201 17.6898 40.1997 50.346 28.8574
$ Change 0.0013 0.0143 0.8353 0.8454 0.4444
% Change day +0.01% +0.08% +2.12% +1.71% +1.56%
% Change week +0.04% +0.19% +3.35% +2.15% +1.45%
% Change month +0.06% -0.09% +3.79% +4.19% +2.68%
% Change year +2.44% -2.35% +6.88% +3.88% -6.48%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.9945 27.514 31.4286 34.2058 19.8076
$ Change 0.0781 0.1615 0.3566 0.4602 0.3019
% Change day +0.39% +0.59% +1.15% +1.36% +1.55%
% Change week +0.56% +0.83% +1.58% +1.87% +2.12%
% Change month +0.74% +1.10% +2.13% +2.53% +2.88%
% Change year +2.27% +2.32% +2.25% +2.17% +2.12%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
The dollar has been dropping a in recent days and that and the threat of increased interest rates which are bad for small caps have been putting pressure on the S
Fund. I feel that this weakness in transitory so I’m sticking with the S Fund for now. It’s due to out perform. We will see. So far I’ve been wrong on this one, but that years not over…. That’s all for tonight., Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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  • 09/29/25

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