11/09/18

Good Evening, For eons it was so goes energy so goes the market but it hasn’t been that way for quite a while. Interest rates, trade and economic stimulus have had the greatest influence on recent markets. It’s been a while since oil has been the moving force but today it continued further into bear market territory and pulled the market down with it. I’ve always had a difficult time in getting a grasp on lower oil being  a drag on the market. I can definitely see it bringing down the energy sector. After all, companies like Chevron and Mobil are directly impacted by it. Nonetheless, I always figured the cost savings from lower oil in almost every other sector would more than offset the losses in energy. However, that’s not the case. After oil falls so much investors view the lower demand as being caused my a slowing world economy and like it or not it is a global economy these days. I think today’s reaction was overdone if not unwarranted but that didn’t help the value of our portfolios at the end of the day. It’s starting to get into the sweet spot as for as positive seasonality goes so it’s about time to get the party started if we’re going to salvage a decent return in 2018.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -1.52%. For comparison, the Dow fell -0.77%, the Nasdaq -1.65%, and the S&P 500 -0.92%. It was just one of those days when everything on the screen was red….

 

Slump in oil prices and China data weighs on stocks

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +2.28% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

11/08/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.9215 17.671 40.1197 50.0977 28.6161
$ Change 0.0014 -0.0188 -0.0800 -0.2483 -0.2413
% Change day +0.01% -0.11% -0.20% -0.49% -0.84%
% Change week +0.05% +0.08% +3.14% +1.65% +0.60%
% Change month +0.07% -0.20% +3.58% +3.68% +1.82%
% Change year +2.45% -2.45% +6.67% +3.37% -7.26%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.977 27.4769 31.3444 34.0958 19.7348
$ Change -0.0175 -0.0371 -0.0842 -0.1100 -0.0728
% Change day -0.09% -0.13% -0.27% -0.32% -0.37%
% Change week +0.48% +0.70% +1.31% +1.55% +1.74%
% Change month +0.65% +0.96% +1.85% +2.20% +2.50%
% Change year +2.18% +2.18% +1.98% +1.84% +1.74%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
I’ll readily admit that our allocation is struggling. The fundamental reasons that we remained in the S fund for have not come to fruition yet. That doesn’t mean that it won’t but it is getting late in the game. So why not switch? Sometimes it’s worse to be late in following a signal than it is to not have followed it in the first place. What is it they say…the circle comes full round…whatever. Anyway, as sure as we sell now the S Fund will turn around and make up for lost time. Of course if we sold, that turnaround would come at our expense. It’s kind of one of those deals.  When your committed your committed. Another way of saying it is that sometimes it’s just not good to change boats in mid stream. I said all that to say this. It may or may not be best at this point, but I’m sticking it out in the S Fund. That’s all for tonight. Have a great weekend and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 09/08/25

    Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price…

  • 09/01/25

    Good Afternoon, Happy Labor Day! I hope this note finds you enjoying some fine cuisine fresh off the grill! Well here we are starting a new month. The dreaded month of September. The weakest month for the stock market since the 20’s and here we are 100% invested in equities. What gives? First of all…

  • 08/24/2024

    Good Afternoon, We talked last week about Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming being a possible inflection point for the market and that’s exactly what it ended up being. The Fed chairman gave a somewhat dovish address in which he noted that  “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting…