Good Evening, Let me get straight to the point. I really want to say something positive. I really do. Other than to spread the good news of the Gospel of Jesus Christ, I don’t have a lot of other good news. I guess that’s a sign of the times…. the book of Revelations will fill you in…. Concerning this market the news is becoming increasingly negative. It’s the good verses the bad. It’s like a balanced set of scales with the negative side becoming heavier and heavier. Lets start with the positive. We have good corporate earnings. As third-quarter earnings season approaches the final stretch, with 91 percent of S&P 500 companies having reported, 77.5 percent have beaten estimates. Then we have….well I guess that’s all we have left. Most recently we had the specter of further tax cuts and more deregulation that would have increased corporate profits and boosted stock prices. That changed with the election. Not gonna happen. You can now place that on the negative side of the scales. Next you have oil prices that have now entered into bear market territory. When oil gets that bad it is definitely a drag on the market. Add that to the negative side. Then you have the trade war which is currently on the negative side of the scales but could possibly shift to the positive side and shift the balance of the scales in that direction should we get some type of trade agreement with China when Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet later this month. That is really our best hope to salvage the 2018 market. Then you have Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the FOMC who seem set on increasing interest rates come hell or high water. You know the market really doesn’t need that much good news right now but one thing it cannot handle is if the Fed increases rates without taking a close look at all economic conditions. The most recent Fed minutes didn’t even have a hint of data dependence in them. Not even one reassuring word! It’s kind of like saying I’m going to drive 70 Miles per hour all the way to work tomorrow morning and I’m not going to worry about the fact that it’s snowing. I plan to drive 70 and that’s the end of it. All I got to say is good luck keeping that car out of the ditch. All I got to say to Jerome Powell is good luck keeping the market out of the ditch if you fail to consider all the data up to and including world market conditions. This is a world market whether you like if or not and right now the rest of the world is not looking so healthy! You think our markets aren’t important? Keep raising rates the way you are and you’ll find out. Am I done?? Nope! Then there’s the Democrats. I know that they’re very happy they are taking over the house. Believe me when I say that I really don’t have a problem with that. But why in God’s sake do they have to start an investigation of several of America’s largest corporations? Do they have an economic death wish??????? Add those to the negative side of the balance too. Folks it’s going to tip toward the bearish side if they don’t add some weight to the positive side of things which of course would be a trade agreement with China. If left to it’s own devices with the current corporate tax cuts and lighter regulations this market would be fine. However, they are creating a man made crisis. Negative sentiment is building and if something is not done to relive the pressure this market will go down for the count! That said, if we get another sell signal in our equity based funds, I intend to sell and stay on the side line until this madness is over. If they want to run the market in the ditch they can certainly do so. But one things for sure, they will do it without our money!!!!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.07%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.40%, the Nasdaq was flat at +0.00%, and the S&P lost -0.15%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral , S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -1.20% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 11/13/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.9284 | 17.7315 | 38.9182 | 48.3912 | 28.1805 |
| $ Change | 0.0056 | 0.0297 | -0.8389 | -0.9772 | -0.3295 |
| % Change day | +0.04% | +0.17% | -2.11% | -1.98% | -1.16% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.17% | -2.11% | -1.98% | -1.16% |
| % Change month | +0.11% | +0.14% | +0.48% | +0.15% | +0.27% |
| % Change year | +2.50% | -2.12% | +3.48% | -0.15% | -8.67% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.8833 | 27.2716 | 30.8633 | 33.4666 | 19.3171 |
| $ Change | -0.0643 | -0.1410 | -0.3296 | -0.4303 | -0.2849 |
| % Change day | -0.32% | -0.51% | -1.06% | -1.27% | -1.45% |
| % Change week | -0.32% | -0.51% | -1.06% | -1.27% | -1.45% |
| % Change month | +0.18% | +0.21% | +0.29% | +0.32% | +0.33% |
| % Change year | +1.70% | +1.42% | +0.41% | -0.04% | -0.41% |
