Good Evening, The market is the same this week as it has been in recent weeks. It is conflicted. Let me explain. Stocks have recently climbed to record levels, fueled by Fed interest rate cuts, third-quarter earnings exceeding low expectations and signs the economy is bottoming. But questions about an initial agreement to help resolve the U.S.-China trade dispute remain a key wild card. Just like I keep saying, at the risk of being redundant, it’s all about China and all the information that is coming out is absolutely conflicted. For example yesterday President Trump said a trade deal with China was “close,” but offered no details and warned that he would raise tariffs “substantially” on Chinese goods without a deal. Stocks tanked today in Asia and Europe and initially in the United States as investors digested his comments. Trump’s threat was a reference to previously announced 15% tariffs on about $156 billion worth of Chinese-made consumer goods scheduled to take effect on Dec. 15, according multiple trade experts and a source close to the White House. Known as the “4B” list of goods those tariffs would hit video game consoles, computer monitors, Christmas decorations and other items often given as gifts. And so it goes. Are we getting a deal or will this trade war escalate? Investors don’t want to sell in front of a possible deal nor do they want to get burned again on another disappointment. So their reaction is to just kind of hang out. No real buying and no real selling. Of course that can all change with the next headline……
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a small gain of +0.07%. For comparison, the Dow gained +0.33%, the Nasdaq fell -0.05%, and the S&P 500 was up +0.07%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +11.50% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 11/12/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.3109 | 19.5723 | 45.1024 | 53.8032 | 31.749 |
| $ Change | 0.0031 | 0.0319 | -0.0157 | 0.0263 | 0.0686 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.16% | -0.03% | +0.05% | +0.22% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.16% | -0.03% | +0.05% | +0.22% |
| % Change month | +0.06% | -0.86% | +1.88% | +2.09% | +1.34% |
| % Change year | +1.99% | +7.88% | +25.45% | +22.34% | +18.85% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.9561 | 28.9401 | 33.9629 | 37.2814 | 21.7288 |
| $ Change | 0.0078 | 0.0114 | 0.0192 | 0.0236 | 0.0149 |
| % Change day | +0.04% | +0.04% | +0.06% | +0.06% | +0.07% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.04% | +0.06% | +0.06% | +0.07% |
| % Change month | +0.35% | +0.43% | +0.99% | +1.18% | +1.35% |
| % Change year | +6.43% | +8.01% | +14.60% | +17.08% | +19.19% |
F Fund:
Nothing to add here. We just need to keep watching the charts for the markets next change. Hopefully this China issue will be resolved soon. However, even if it is we’ll still have to contend with the impeachment hearings. It seems that political risk has become a daily part of the landscape if you are investing and unfortunately it doesn’t look like its going away….That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
