11/19/18

Good Evening, Recently, we’ve been talking about the fact that this is not a healthy market. If there were any doubters among you I’ll bet you changed your opinion today! The market was rocked by the same issues that plagued it last week. Apple and trade. These weekends are getting brutal. This weekend an article was released by the Wall Street Journal that talked about weakness in the Apple supply chain. That was strike one. Also this weekend there was more bad news on the Chinese trade deal as both China and the U.S. made extremely negative comments in competing speeches by high ranking officials.That was strike two. Posturing before the trade negotiations in Argentina? I don’t think so and neither does the market. A trade deal looks further away than it was a week ago. The only thing that will salvage this years market would be a deal with China when Presidents Jinping and Trump meet next week. I really don’t think that will happen, but what I think doesn’t matter. Our strategy has been to hang around as long as the charts will let us hoping for a fall rally promised by the fundamentals. Right now those charts are beginning to close in on sell signals. Barring some really good action in the next few days we’ll probably get sell signals in both the C and S Funds. If that happens we will sell. We’ll quit digging before this hole gets to deep!

The days trading left us with the following signals: Our TSP allotment fell -1.90%. For comparison, the Dow lost -1.56%, the Nasdaq was crushed at -3.03%, and the S&P 500 dropped -1.66%. It was brutal out there!

 

Wall Street tumbles as Apple, internet stocks swoon

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. However, our chart for the S Fund is precariously close to a sell signal. Our allocation is now -0.47% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

11/16/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.9324 17.7855 39.1453 48.7503 28.1038
$ Change 0.0013 0.0502 0.0900 0.0869 0.0887
% Change day +0.01% +0.28% +0.23% +0.18% +0.32%
% Change week +0.06% +0.47% -1.54% -1.25% -1.42%
% Change month +0.14% +0.45% +1.07% +0.89% +0.00%
% Change year +2.52% -1.82% +4.08% +0.59% -8.92%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.905 27.3112 30.9387 33.5616 19.3782
$ Change 0.0146 0.0272 0.0530 0.0671 0.0431
% Change day +0.07% +0.10% +0.17% +0.20% +0.22%
% Change week -0.21% -0.37% -0.81% -0.99% -1.14%
% Change month +0.29% +0.36% +0.53% +0.60% +0.65%
% Change year +1.81% +1.57% +0.66% +0.25% -0.09%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
Earlier in the year we talked about how the character of the market had changed to that of what it had been prior to 2008. I’m not going to go into those details now but you can find in the archives if you so chose. Nonetheless, when we talked about the change I told you we would be returning to our pre 2008 indicators at the beginning of the new year. That said we will do so with the next cycle. Should we sell here we will go back to the old indicators. So what does that mean? Simply that we will get buy and sell signals faster than have in recent years. The days of soft signals that keep you in the market longer are numbered…. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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