Good Evening, As we anticipated the market is rising and falling on the trade war with China. It all comes down to whether or not some type of agreement comes out of this weekends high stakes meeting in Argentina. I would really like to say it’s going to be OK. But the question you have to ask yourself is whether or not you believe it enough to risk being exposed to the market after the meeting. Another leg down could cost you 5-10 more percentage points and that’s not a stretch when taking current market conditions into account. It says here that it won’t be good if there’s no agreement. I don’t agree with all the market pundits that say that no agreement is already priced into the market. It may be partially priced in but I’ll bet stocks fall with a lack of agreement. I believe a more likely scenario would be one where there will be no agreement but perhaps some positive remarks made by one or both sides after the meeting. That would be enough to string the market along if not give it a small boost. One thing I know for sure is that this is a high stakes game with High risk and High reward which in my humble opinion is not the place for retirement money. Mad Money yes. Retirement money, absolutely not. There will be opportunities that will arise from this trade war. We just need to be patient to reap some those rewards without all the risk. Our charts will let us know when the time is right.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow gained +0.44%, the Nasdaq was flat at +0.01%, and S&P 500 was up +0.33%. I will add that not all was well out there as the S Fund fell -0.84%. Of course you can always see the results for the S Fund in the charts that I post below.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -4.11% on the year, not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.
| 11/26/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.9461 | 17.7846 | 38.2593 | 48.2464 | 27.9882 |
| $ Change | 0.0041 | -0.0068 | 0.5898 | 0.7042 | 0.1891 |
| % Change day | +0.03% | -0.04% | +1.57% | +1.48% | +0.68% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.04% | +1.57% | +1.48% | +0.68% |
| % Change month | +0.22% | +0.44% | -1.22% | -0.15% | -0.41% |
| % Change year | +2.61% | -1.82% | +1.73% | -0.45% | -9.29% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.8572 | 27.1999 | 30.6671 | 33.2065 | 19.1441 |
| $ Change | 0.0541 | 0.1098 | 0.2367 | 0.3040 | 0.1989 |
| % Change day | +0.27% | +0.41% | +0.78% | +0.92% | +1.05% |
| % Change week | +0.27% | +0.41% | +0.78% | +0.92% | +1.05% |
| % Change month | +0.05% | -0.05% | -0.35% | -0.46% | -0.56% |
| % Change year | +1.57% | +1.15% | -0.22% | -0.81% | -1.30% |
