11/01/17

Good Evening, Small Cap and Tech stocks decided to take the first day of November off making for a somewhat choppy beginning to the new month. I really thought we would get a small rally this afternoon as the FED concluded their November meeting with an expected announcement to hold rates steady at this time. The Dow and the S&P 500 both managed modest gains on the day. That makes it obvious that the gains were driven almost exclusively by large cap stocks. This is strange for November. I not quit sure what to make of it. All that noted, tomorrow has the makings of a market mover. Make no mistake, investors are keying on tax reform and tomorrow Republican congressional leaders are supposed to release the proposed Republican bill for tax reform. This is the single most important market moving piece of news of the year so far. If the market likes what it sees it will be rally on and if not, well lets just say not so good. Tomorrow also happens to have the second most market moving piece of news of the year as well. President Trump is supposed to release his pick for the chairman of the Federal Reserve as Janet Yellen’s term is coming to an end. If that pick is Janet Yellen or Jerome Powell both of whom are considered to be market friendly everything will be fine. If the pick does not include one of the aforementioned pair not so fine…. You get the picture. You might want to have your seat belts fastened tightly as tomorrow could be quite a ride!

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back -0.30%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.25%, the Nasdaq dropped -0.17%, and the S&P 500 was up +0.16%.

 

Wall St. edges higher after Fed holds steady on rates

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +15.48% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
10/31/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.4792 18.0487 36.0912 46.8782 30.0511
$ Change 0.0010 -0.0050 0.0355 0.3114 0.0417
% Change day +0.01% -0.03% +0.10% +0.67% +0.14%
% Change week +0.02% +0.29% -0.21% -0.13% +0.61%
% Change month +0.19% +0.07% +2.33% +1.41% +1.54%
% Change year +1.92% +3.44% +16.90% +14.35% +22.15%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.3495 26.4745 30.0219 32.5875 18.822
$ Change 0.0078 0.0191 0.0367 0.0480 0.0323
% Change day +0.04% +0.07% +0.12% +0.15% +0.17%
% Change week +0.04% +0.05% +0.05% +0.06% +0.06%
% Change month +0.54% +0.83% +1.27% +1.46% +1.63%
% Change year +5.10% +8.16% +11.87% +13.66% +15.29%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund: The F Fund generated a new Neutral signal as the MACD moved into a positive configuration to join the Wms%R. Price remains in a descending channel.
Small caps have under performed so far this fall which I find surprising but perhaps they’ll perk up tomorrow if the news is supportive. For now we just need to keep praying and watching our charts. The plan remains the same. We’ll know inside of a few weeks if it was a good one or not as small caps stand to benefit the most from tax reform. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening!
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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