Good Evening, The Senate released their version of the GOP tax reform bill and the market did not like it as well as the House version. The sticking point is a provision that will delay a corporate tax cut to 20 percent. That was enough to send the market into a small temper tantrum as the it gaped down in the morning and tested lows again later in the day after a failed bounce. The major indices did manage to recover some of the lost ground by the bell but still finished moderately in the red. I know what the news is but I’d have to say that today’s action felt more like profit taking than fear. After taking all things into consideration I am still bullish into the new year. Given the season of the year I’ll bet that the market continues to ignore the tax issue as it has done so many times in the recent past.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -0.50%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.43%, the Nasdaq -0.58%, and the S&P 500 -0.38%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +14.89% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 11/08/17 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
15.4872 |
18.0887 |
36.3701 |
46.635 |
30.2122 |
| $ Change |
0.0010 |
-0.0181 |
0.0531 |
0.0770 |
0.0736 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
-0.10% |
+0.15% |
+0.17% |
+0.24% |
| % Change week |
+0.03% |
+0.06% |
+0.26% |
-0.39% |
+0.22% |
| % Change month |
+0.05% |
+0.22% |
+0.77% |
-0.52% |
+0.54% |
| % Change year |
+1.98% |
+3.67% |
+17.81% |
+13.76% |
+22.80% |
| |
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
19.3797 |
26.5356 |
30.1238 |
32.7117 |
18.8998 |
| $ Change |
0.0067 |
0.0166 |
0.0318 |
0.0407 |
0.0270 |
| % Change day |
+0.03% |
+0.06% |
+0.11% |
+0.12% |
+0.14% |
| % Change week |
+0.06% |
+0.08% |
+0.11% |
+0.12% |
+0.12% |
| % Change month |
+0.16% |
+0.23% |
+0.34% |
+0.38% |
+0.41% |
| % Change year |
+5.27% |
+8.41% |
+12.25% |
+14.09% |
+15.77% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: Price bounced off the 50 EMA today. That needs to hold. The 5 EMA passed down through the 20 EMA. While that is not a game breaker. it’s obviously not good.
I Fund:
F Fund:
I’m a realist not an optimist. I do have confidence that God will guide our group if we are faithful. That said, the charts are obviously under some stress. However, under stress is not a reason to sell. At least not yet. After studying all the charts it is my opinion that large caps are still hanging in there. As I said earlier, today’s action had the feel of profit taking not of fear. Call it intuition, call it experience, call it what you want but I still feel bullish going into the new year. Folks, this tax thing isn’t going to go away. It’s not likely that any legislation will pass in 2017. This will probably be more like the interest rate thing was that went on so long before it was resolved. Every time a new piece of news or speculation comes out there will be a bump in the road until some type of tax reform is passed or it ultimately fails. Either way, God’s on the throne and I’ll continue to put my faith in Him. It sure beats putting it in Capitol Hill….. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and I’ll see you tomorrow!
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at [email protected].
