11/19/14

Good Evening,

It’s all about the FED. The minutes from the most recent FED meeting were released today with traders watching closely for language indicating when interest rates might increase. After studying the release, I’m not sure they gleaned any new information out of it. The market was mostly unresponsive, remaining slightly in the red where it had been most of the day. One notable thing on the day was that small caps took another big hit leading me to believe that market players just aren’t as comfortable with small more speculative stocks. As a result, the IWM (Russell 2000) was off over 1% and the VXF (S Fund) with some small caps dropped -0.61%. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the S Fund. Both TSP and AMP where off on the day.

Wall Street edges lower as Fed minutes offer few clues on rates rtr_ahz_rgb_pos_thumb

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy,I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 50/C, 50/S, but will be making an interfund transfer to 50/C, 20/S, 30/I. That will be effective as of the close of business tomorrow. We are going to try to take advantage of the improving I Fund, as it has the most room to run. Our allocation is now -0.86% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:

11/18/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.5814 16.6536 27.0063 35.7028 25.0668
$ Change 0.0008 0.0048 0.1433 0.2131 0.2895
% Change day +0.01% +0.03% +0.53% +0.60% +1.17%
% Change week +0.02% -0.03% +0.61% +0.15% +0.73%
% Change month +0.11% +0.06% +1.85% +0.66% -0.27%
% Change year +2.06% +5.79% +13.11% +6.04% -1.95%
L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.4155 22.9079 24.8318 26.4108 14.9953
$ Change 0.0255 0.0865 0.1194 0.1450 0.0941
% Change day +0.15% +0.38% +0.48% +0.55% +0.63%
% Change week +0.13% +0.30% +0.37% +0.42% +0.47%
% Change month +0.31% +0.57% +0.70% +0.78% +0.84%
% Change year +3.56% +5.10% +5.85% +6.35% +6.63%

Lets take a look at the I fund. (All charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
The I Fund (using our quickest indicator package) generated a buy signal today when the 5 EMA made a positive crossover of the 50 EMA. Price has recently traded four times over the 50 EMA and is following the newly established trend line back up. The I fund suffered the most damage in 2014 so it obviously has the most room to run. We will try to take advantage of the positive action. As with any newly generated signal there is always the chance that we could be whipsawed. However, in light of the S Funds recent performance we will take that chance. If we are forced to sell one, we will probably be forced to sell the other. As usual, I have annotated the areas of concern on the chart.
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We experienced a little more choppy action today. There’s only so many ways to say this is what we anticipated. That said, we aren’t surprised and aren’t panicking every time we see a little weakness. Our task right now is to make sure that the trend doesn’t change for the worse. As of today that trend is still up and we must respect that. Our charts will tell us when we need to make a move. That’s all for today. Have a nice evening and remember that God inhabits the praises of the faithful. May He continue to bless your trades!
God bless,
Scott8-)
 


Written By

Scott Grimes

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