Good Morning, Well we’ve finally arrived at the last month of 2025 and I’m glad to get here. Statistically speaking December is the third beast month for the market with average return of greater than 1 percent. It seems like this year has been one where the market was on the verge of breaking out but just couldn’t quite get over the hill. That’s not to say that it has been bad heretofore, but it definitely could have been better minus all the unnecessary drama created by the Fed delaying interest rate reductions and the government shutdown. Had we been free of all this drama, we would have most certainly had fabulous returns for the year. As it is, it appears that we will finish with average to below average returns. The main reason is that the market hates uncertainly and these issues have created it by the boatload. It is what it is and we have been forced to deal with it. I am very thankful for the positive returns that we do have and look forward to adding to them as we close out the year. As we noted last week everything for the rest of the year will be about the Feds meeting and subsequent interest rate decision next week on Dec 9th and 10th. This one is as simple as it gets. If the Fed decreases rates we will rally. If the Fed fails to decrease rates we will sell off. Beyond that we will move into 2026 speculating on what the Fed will do at their first meeting of the year and wondering if congress might have another government shutdown. I’ll be more than frank with you about one thing. I am totally against anyone that advocates shutting down the government for any reason. As long as we don’t have a budget and are under continuing resolution the market will face stiff headwinds as a result of this uncertainty. Geopolitical issues such as Ukraine and Venezuela will certainly have a some influence but that will be limited as the main issues have and will continue to be interest rates and the US budget. AI ????? That all depends on what happens with the interest rates. The AI trade needs lower rates to justify high valuations. To me that’s just gasoline on the fire of the selling or buying as a result of interest rates. While the media sees the AI trade as a separate issue I do not. What happens with AI stocks will be first determined by the Fed Rate policy and secondly by the earnings reports of the companies involved in Artificial intelligence. The earnings are really a moot point without lower rates. It’s more like we have to have two things go right to move higher and only one wrong to sell off. In other words, if the Fed fails to decrease rates and the market sells off, what do the earnings really matter? They will never be good enough to overcome interest rates that the market views as too high to justify nosebleed AI stock valuations.  Again, as we always say, we most focus on what we can control which is to look at our charts and react to the results of these issues as they unfold, but first and foremost we must continue to pray to God who guides our hand. We give Him thanks and praise for all He has done for us in 2025 and what He will do for us in 2026. As scripture says. all good things come from God.

The days trading has so far generated the following results: Our TSP allotment is trading lower at -0.33%. For comparison, the Dow is off -0.47%, the Nasdaq -0.52%, and the S&P 500 is of course -0.33%.

Stocks fall to kick off December as bitcoin, tech stocks decline: Live updates

Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +18.48% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.