Good Day, Alright, should I report the news or should I say what I really think. I know there are some folks that just want to know the news. For them I would offer this. Most news is noise. Let me repeat that again. Most news is noise. We watch it because and try to glean a little truth out of it. Of course, that goes without saying. but the biggest reason we watch it is in order to see what effect it is having on the psychology of the herd. What kind of herd you ask? Why the herd of sheep that blindly follow the market makers. That herd. Those that buy every patch of green grass and sell every time they hear there’s a wolf nearby. In other words they buy good news and sell bad news. They march to the beat of the market makers drum. So Scott, what do you mean be market makers? Those that invest enough money to move the market. Those that have access to high speed computer algorithms that are programmed to take advantage of the panicked sheep. Should we call them market manipulators? I’ll leave that up to you. I guess it all depends on how you look at it. They can move the market but ultimately they have to buy and sell like everyone else to make their money and they do so by faking out and scaring the sheep! That is the reason that so many investors just buy and hold. They find it futile to try to resist the wolves. So they take what the market gives. They take the crumbs off the wolves table and are happy with that. Why? Because that is all they can do and….. because that is all they can do, they think that is all you can do. They will point out every time you stumble, but they seem to be silent every time you have success. Kind of reminds you of the news just a little bit doesn’t it. Years ago, there was a song written and performed by Don Henley of the Eagles. It was called “Dirty Laundry” . There song always stuck with me and it applies so much to the point I am trying to get across here. Here are the lyrics:
[Verse 1]
I make my livin’ off the evenin’ news
Just give me somethin’, somethin’ I can use
People love it when you lose
They love dirty laundry
[Verse 2]
Well, I coulda’ been an actor, but I wound up here
I just have to look good, I don’t have to be clear
Come and whisper in my ear
Give us dirty laundry
[Verse 3]
We got the bubble-headed bleached-blonde, comes on at five
She can tell you ’bout the plane crash with a gleam in her eye
It’s interesting when people die
Give us dirty laundry
There you go…..People Love it when you lose…. Let me tell you something… most of them hate it when you win too. That’s just the present nature of this wicked world. Isn’t it wonderful that we know the one true God that brings peace and clarity to all of it!
Anyway, that is how I view the news. It is a necessary evil, but we should never let it or the negative folks that follow it distract us from making the best investment decisions that we can make. Do what you know is best and never take your eye off the ball! There is no substitute for the cold hard math that makes up our charts.
So where are we at today? We moved to the the G fund a week ago this past Friday booking close to 8% in profits. Since then the market for the most part has continued to move up. We had a few people that pointed that out on our Facebook page. So let me tell ya’ll how this works. I backchecked our system and the market dipped after on the average of 3 to 7 days after it’s initial sell signal. The least was one and the most I could find was ten. Today is day six since we moved. The average dip that occurred was 3-5%. However, there were some greater than 10%. The moral of the story is that it’s better to book the profit and be safe than it is to risk falling back. In this system as in my previous system you actually make the most money when you hang onto most or all of your gains. This is a hard concept for some folks to understand. I hate to use the term shortsighted because I think it sounds a bit insulting and my purpose is not to insult them but to help them. That is the ones that want to be helped…..it’s obvious that some of them just want to be contentious. However, in this case I just can’t think of a better term. They are being shortsighted. They are failing to look at the big picture. It’s not how much that you make that’s important. It’s how much you keep! If you can book a profit and keep all or most of it, your portfolio will always grow. You need to focus on your portfolio, on your money. Don’t worry about Suzie or Joe at the water cooler or in the break room. Sure they always made so much money by sticking it out…. yes and sometimes they got lucky and made a big trade. You know what they say right, it’s better to be lucky than to be good? If you believe that trash then your probably wasting your time here!!! My whole point in this blog today is don’t be distracted by the news and by these other folks (some of which may be well meaning). You need to do what it best for you and for your family. Listen to your charts and let Holy Spirit guide your hand! Our plan remains the same. Our charts tell us that there will likely be a dip. We can’t say how much it will be. I can usually make an educated guess by looking at my charts and my guess is that this time the dip will be in the 3-5% range. When and if that dip takes place it is our intention to buy back into equites as our charts produce buy signals. I believe this could take place in a week or so, but again, that’s my best guess. I do not believe that stocks will continue higher without first taking a rest. They may go up and down, but they will not make significant progress higher until some type of dip takes place albeit small or large and I think it will be small. So Scott…what can you tell us for sure?? Okay, I hear you. I can say this as an absolute. We will not lose our gains from November and that’s all I can say!!! God is good. Give Him all the Praise!!!
The days trading is generating the following results: Our TSP allotment remains steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow is giving up -0.41%, the Nasdaq -1,42%, and the S&P 500 -0.88%. It’s a good day to be in the G Fund. Praise God for His guidance!
Nasdaq falls 1% Monday following 5 straight weeks of gains: Live updates
Recent trading has generated the following signals: C-Sell, S-Hold, I-Sell, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -1.02% on the year and +0.01% for the month. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/01/23 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 17.8963 | 18.6929 | 71.5592 | 71.5764 | 38.4578 |
| $ Change | 0.0024 | 0.1598 | 0.4238 | 1.7747 | 0.3299 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.86% | +0.60% | +2.54% | +0.87% |
| % Change week | +0.10% | +1.97% | +0.83% | +3.64% | +0.80% |
| % Change month | +0.01% | +0.86% | +0.60% | +2.54% | +0.87% |
| % Change year | +3.84% | +2.67% | +21.48% | +16.33% | +13.30% |
