12/06/18

Good Evening, The market tanked again this morning after if was announced that the CFO of a major Chinese tech company was arrested in Canada and may be extradited to the Untied States. However, stocks were able to move off of their lows in the afternoon after comments by Fed Board members were reported that indicated that they might take a wait and see approach on future rate hikes. That said, a rate hike this month is all but a given. My indicators are still telling me to stay out of the market. That is really not a problem as most stocks are beaten up so badly now that there will be plenty of time to establish new positions when the market turns around. There is no reason to try to be a hero at this point. Never try to buy stocks in the teeth of a decline. The key is to be patient and build new positions when the market starts to trend back up. You don’t have to catch the exact bottom to do that. You will almost assuredly lose money if you try.  Investors call it trying to catch a falling knife when you buy equities on the way down. There is most definitely a reason for that description…..

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.32%, the Nasdaq gained +0.42%, and the S&P 500 fell -0.15%. That’s a whole lot better than it was this morning.

 

S&P 500, Dow slip on trade worries, but end off of lows

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -4.04% on the year not including the days results. Here are the a latest posted results:

 

12/05/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.957 17.9068 38.6621 47.8809 27.8563
$ Change 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
% Change day +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
% Change week +0.03% +0.51% -2.17% -2.77% -0.75%
% Change month +0.03% +0.51% -2.17% -2.77% -0.75%
% Change year +2.68% -1.15% +2.80% -1.21% -9.72%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.8903 27.2537 30.7503 33.3031 19.2007
$ Change 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
% Change day +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
% Change week -0.31% -0.50% -1.06% -1.28% -1.47%
% Change month -0.31% -0.50% -1.06% -1.28% -1.47%
% Change year +1.74% +1.35% +0.05% -0.52% -1.01%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
We need to keep a close eye on our charts and that means all the charts. Not just the funds that make up the TSP, but also such things as the sector charts and the VIX. We don’t need to get back into this water until they all agree that it is safe. Who knows? Perhaps tomorrow will be the start of the new uptrend. That’s any ones guess, but right now bounces are not to be trusted until the charts tell us that they can. For the record, I expect more of the same…. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 09/22/25

    Good Morning, Well we got the Fed meeting that we wanted with a quarter point interest rate decrease with the indication that the Fed is planning on two more rate cuts in 2025. As a result, we find ourselves in the odd position of holding a profit in late September. I said in last weeks…

  • 09/15/25

    Good Morning, When we went into September invested at 100/S many folks said we’d get knocked out. Well, guess what? We’re still standing. There were many including some in our group that basically said “you messed up this time, no sir not me, I’m not doing that. September is always the worst month for the…

  • 09/08/25

    Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price…