12/07/18

Good Evening,The market sold off again today on poorer than expected economic data and concerns about the Fed. You can read about that in the link below. Earlier this fall we ignored our indicators in favor of fundamental analysis that was just too good….. too good to be true that is. The talking heads keep saying how good the economy is and how good corporate earnings are and I agree with them. However, I also pointed out (While still ignoring my charts) that there were many negatives piling up and that they were starting to balance out  the positives. Well I think the scales are now tipping in the bears favor. This is a lesson for everyone. Had I listened to the charts and sold at the end of September or early October (like I started to do) I would now be in the green for the year rather than in the red. I can hear them now…Well Scott, 3 or 4 % is not that bad when you consider….. I disagree, it is when it’s threatening to be only the third time time in 21 years that we have been in the red in December. It is when it was unnecessary and this was definitely unnecessary. I know that I need to let it go.  I know that God is still on the throne and that He is still with us. Nonetheless, this poor decision will have me kicking myself for a while. I guess it’s just Human nature. All that said, I do thank God for the fact that we are out of the market now. It was truly a blessing again today……The bottom line is this.  We’re rangebound for now and the upcoming action will dictate whether this is the beginning of a bear market or simply another long correction and basing period such as we had 2014-2016. Only time will tell.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow lost -2.24%, Nasdaq -3.05%, and the S&P 500 -2.33%. Praise God that we were on the sidelines this week!

 

Wall Street tumbles, indexes post biggest weekly losses since March

The weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -4.03% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

12/06/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.9596 17.9361 38.6145 47.9063 27.43
$ Change 0.0026 0.0293 -0.0476 0.0254 -0.4263
% Change day +0.02% +0.16% -0.12% +0.05% -1.53%
% Change week +0.05% +0.68% -2.29% -2.72% -2.27%
% Change month +0.05% +0.68% -2.29% -2.72% -2.27%
% Change year +2.70% -0.99% +2.67% -1.16% -11.10%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.8744 27.2168 30.6602 33.1851 19.1224
$ Change -0.0159 -0.0369 -0.0901 -0.1180 -0.0783
% Change day -0.08% -0.14% -0.29% -0.35% -0.41%
% Change week -0.39% -0.64% -1.35% -1.63% -1.87%
% Change month -0.39% -0.64% -1.35% -1.63% -1.87%
% Change year +1.66% +1.21% -0.25% -0.88% -1.41%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall sell signal when the PMO, MACD, and Wms%R moved into negative configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA  or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
F Fund:
It was a brutal week for the market.  Even though we were sitting out I’m still glad it is over. Looking on to next week I am not very optimistic. My charts still tell me the best place to be is out of equities. I must say though that bonds are shaping up nicely. I might consider a move to the F Fund depending on what the Fed does and how it effects the treasury rates. That’s all for this week. Have a nice weekend and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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