12/10/18

Good Evening, There’s really not much new to say. The high volatility continued today which is exactly what my indicators say should be happening. For those of you who are new to trading and may not understand exactly what we mean when we say the market is volatile, we are talking about big swings. Just because the market is volatile doesn’t mean that stocks don’t move up as well, they do. What it does mean is that there will be large swings both up and down. You are very unlikely to hold onto any gains that you make and the risk is much higher to the down side. When you determine that a market is as volatile as this one is, the best thing to do is to get out of the way until it settles down. There are still a bunch of negatives out there. For starters, I will personally feel a lot better when I see small caps moving back up. Today the Russell 2000 set a 52 week low. Just remember, small caps lead us up and they lead us down and right now they are still moving lower. Then we have the VIX which has consistently remained above 16. It is currently sitting at 22.64. The VIX never holds above 16 unless there is a correction or bear market. Add the China trade war, brexit, and the interest rate situation and you have a volatile brew. As far as I’m concerned we have one foot in a bear market and one foot out. You can bet that I’m not getting back into equities until things settle down!

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow added +0.14%, the Nasdaq +0.74%, and the S&P 500 +0.18%. Of course with small caps down the S Fund was off -0.29%.

 

Wall St. ends choppy day higher; tech helps, Brexit weighs

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -3.99% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

12/10/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.9649 17.9719 37.7884 46.7047 26.8776
$ Change 0.0040 0.0026 0.0673 -0.1551 -0.4042
% Change day +0.03% +0.01% +0.18% -0.33% -1.48%
% Change week +0.03% +0.01% +0.18% -0.33% -1.48%
% Change month +0.08% +0.88% -4.38% -5.16% -4.24%
% Change year +2.73% -0.79% +0.47% -3.63% -12.89%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.7961 27.0471 30.2697 32.6769 18.7867
$ Change -0.0117 -0.0281 -0.0704 -0.0935 -0.0628
% Change day -0.06% -0.10% -0.23% -0.29% -0.33%
% Change week -0.06% -0.10% -0.23% -0.29% -0.33%
% Change month -0.78% -1.26% -2.60% -3.13% -3.60%
% Change year +1.26% +0.58% -1.52% -2.40% -3.14%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:

F Fund:
I won’t call it a bear until they do but if it walks like a bear and growls like a bear then it’s probably a bear. Folks, trust no bounces until a new uptrend is established! Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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