Good Evening, There’s really not much new to say. The high volatility continued today which is exactly what my indicators say should be happening. For those of you who are new to trading and may not understand exactly what we mean when we say the market is volatile, we are talking about big swings. Just because the market is volatile doesn’t mean that stocks don’t move up as well, they do. What it does mean is that there will be large swings both up and down. You are very unlikely to hold onto any gains that you make and the risk is much higher to the down side. When you determine that a market is as volatile as this one is, the best thing to do is to get out of the way until it settles down. There are still a bunch of negatives out there. For starters, I will personally feel a lot better when I see small caps moving back up. Today the Russell 2000 set a 52 week low. Just remember, small caps lead us up and they lead us down and right now they are still moving lower. Then we have the VIX which has consistently remained above 16. It is currently sitting at 22.64. The VIX never holds above 16 unless there is a correction or bear market. Add the China trade war, brexit, and the interest rate situation and you have a volatile brew. As far as I’m concerned we have one foot in a bear market and one foot out. You can bet that I’m not getting back into equities until things settle down!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow added +0.14%, the Nasdaq +0.74%, and the S&P 500 +0.18%. Of course with small caps down the S Fund was off -0.29%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -3.99% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.
| 12/10/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.9649 | 17.9719 | 37.7884 | 46.7047 | 26.8776 |
| $ Change | 0.0040 | 0.0026 | 0.0673 | -0.1551 | -0.4042 |
| % Change day | +0.03% | +0.01% | +0.18% | -0.33% | -1.48% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.01% | +0.18% | -0.33% | -1.48% |
| % Change month | +0.08% | +0.88% | -4.38% | -5.16% | -4.24% |
| % Change year | +2.73% | -0.79% | +0.47% | -3.63% | -12.89% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.7961 | 27.0471 | 30.2697 | 32.6769 | 18.7867 |
| $ Change | -0.0117 | -0.0281 | -0.0704 | -0.0935 | -0.0628 |
| % Change day | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.23% | -0.29% | -0.33% |
| % Change week | -0.06% | -0.10% | -0.23% | -0.29% | -0.33% |
| % Change month | -0.78% | -1.26% | -2.60% | -3.13% | -3.60% |
| % Change year | +1.26% | +0.58% | -1.52% | -2.40% | -3.14% |
