Good Afternoon, Yes, I’m a little late getting started with this today. I’ve been crazy busy dumping tech stocks and buying Industrial, Consumer discretionary, consumer staples, banks, and health care. I can’t recall this kind of vicious rotation in December in recent memory. This almost reminds me of when I was trying to figure the market out during and after the pandemic. At least now I have indicators that are telling me exactly what it’s doing. However, they still leave me guessing as to exactly why. Oh, I know you just read on Reuters or CNBC or where ever that Investors have become nervous about the AI trade and are fleeing to the safety of the aforementioned sectors. But why is the rotation so…..again I’ll say vicious. I’m telling you if your not all over it your getting vaporized. Want to lose a quick 20. 30. 40 or even more percent. Then just hold onto a few of these precious AI tech darlings. What is that you said? Quite trying to time the market?? We told you it was best to buy and hold just stay in the C Fund blah blah blah. Two things I will tell you. #1 We don’t time the market. We follow the trend which believe it or not, at least for the moment is still up. #2 Time is money and money is time. If you want to spend your time making back what you lost during the last sell off then have at it. I’d rather spend mine adding to what I have even if it is just a modest amount. I’ll take it. You can spend all your time burning rubber and while your doing it we’ll already be halfway down the track!
Here’s my take on the current action….. I believe that investors do have a little concern over tech stock valuations, but I don’t think that’s the main reason behind this rotation. I think that the rally is broadening out. Investors are using high tech prices as an excuse to jump into other areas of the market that have been beaten up and ignored during this AI led rally. It’s plain and simple. They are just trying to go where they can make a little money and if they means selling some of their big tech winners then so be it. After all they can always buy them back and believe me they will. Here’s saying the next big rally whenever it comes will be a rotation back into the AI/Tech trade. S0 how does that effect us? Why do we care in TSP? As I mentioned last week a lot of the largest companies in market cap make of a sizeable portion of the major indices. When they dip the market dips. So when investors rotate out these sto0cks then the market dips. Its that simple. There’s no use to overcomplicate things here. I said all that to say this. Just because the market is dipping doesn’t mean it’s crashing. Once the magnificent 7 stabilize, the S&P 500 will have a new leader. Yes indeed, we’ll just call it the Magnificent 493…… If you didn’t catch that then let me make it plain. The market will be led higher by the rest of the S&P 500 and this ladies and gentlemen can be a very healthy thing. Lets be clear here, at least at this point in time, the money is not leaving the market. It is only moving to other areas. Now if it was moving to the sidelines, then you’d have something to worry about for sure, but that’s not the case here. So what should we do? There’s not much we can do at this point but watch our charts and see what happens. The Fed is now buying short term bonds. So the F Fund could come into play. Right now our equity based charts are all feeling pressure from the current selling. They are bending, but the question is will they break before the major indices stabilize? We will just have to wait and see. So hold the phone on that interfund transfer. We are in no mans land right now. We are close to possibly having to move but we’re not quite their just yet. As far as the C Fund or S Fund debate goes, the charts for the two funds are neck and neck. So a move could be good today then bad tomorrow. My expectation is that this will all play out withing the coming days and we’ll either have a Santa Rally or we won’t. Hopefully, things will be a little clearer by then. If not….. Folks keep praying that God will guide our hand. I will look at the charts again this afternoon. We could make a move at any time or not.
Market moving event this week include:
Week ahead calendar
All times ET.
Monday, Dec. 15
Tuesday, Dec. 16
8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (November)
8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (October)
Earnings: Lennar
Wednesday, Dec. 17
Earnings: Micron Technology, General Mills
Thursday, Dec. 18
8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (November)
8:30 a.m. Real Earnings (November)
Jobless Claims (Week ending December 13)
Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Cintas, Darden Restaurants
Friday, Dec. 19
Earnings: Lamb Weston, Paychex, Conagra Brands
Pay particular attention to the CPI and remember it is for November.
The trading so far has left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment is trading lower at -0.60%. For comparison, the Dow is in the negative by -0.02%, the Nasdaq -0.46%, and the S&P 500 -001%. The major indices are drifting higher as a write this. So they could well finish in the green at the close.
S&P 500 gives up gain as AI-related stocks come under pressure again: Live updates
| 12/12/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.5453 | 20.7917 | 109.1659 | 102.3503 | 54.5413 |
| $ Change | 0.0022 | -0.0592 | -1.1702 | -1.6888 | -0.3163 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.28% | -1.06% | -1.62% | -0.58% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | -0.20% | -0.61% | +0.36% | +0.56% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | -0.69% | -0.26% | +1.40% | +1.28% |
| % Change year | +4.22% | +6.74% | +17.47% | +13.53% | +30.18% |
