Good Evening, The major indices ended the day somewhat flat after stocks tried move up following yesterdays massive selloff. The dip buyers failed to get excited with all the uncertainty out there. The main issues worrying investors today were tomorrows Fed interest rate decision, a possible government shutdown, and the trade war with China. Pretty much the same issues with a different emphasis depending on the days news flow. The bottom line is this. My charts and indicators tell me to stay out of the market right now and until they tell me to get back in I will remain on the sidelines. I had a question today about the F Fund. Specifically why I’m not in it. I though about getting in but there are a couple reasons I have been hesitant. #1 I was concerned about the rising interest rates. They usually have a negative impact on bond prices. #2 A lot of the rise in bond prices has been due to investors moving there as a safe haven. Should we have something big happen such as a major trade agreement with China the market would pop and that money would quickly leave bonds and move back into stocks. Of course that would cause bond prices to decline. I felt like the situation was a little unstable and could stick my portfolio with a loss if something like the aforementioned situation took place. In much simpler terms, I could get caught leaning the wrong way. I moved to the F Fund back in 2000 and made over nine percent while the C Fund lost 32 percent so it works quite well in the right circumstances. I’m not ruling it out for the future but I’m taking a look and see attitude for now. I certainly wouldn’t discourage anyone who wanted to move to the F. After all, it’s certainly been a good move up to this point and the chart has a solid buy signal.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow was up +0.35%, the Nasdaq +0.45%, and the S&P 500 +0.01%. Today’s rally was hardly anything to inspire confidence.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -3.94% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/17/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.974 | 18.0118 | 36.4891 | 44.6417 | 26.9104 |
| $ Change | 0.0040 | 0.0315 | -0.7714 | -1.1272 | -0.2827 |
| % Change day | +0.03% | +0.18% | -2.07% | -2.46% | -1.04% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.18% | -2.07% | -2.46% | -1.04% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | +1.10% | -7.67% | -9.35% | -4.12% |
| % Change year | +2.79% | -0.57% | -2.98% | -7.89% | -12.79% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.7086 | 26.8546 | 29.8219 | 32.093 | 18.4003 |
| $ Change | -0.0651 | -0.1407 | -0.3215 | -0.4175 | -0.2753 |
| % Change day | -0.33% | -0.52% | -1.07% | -1.28% | -1.47% |
| % Change week | -0.33% | -0.52% | -1.07% | -1.28% | -1.47% |
| % Change month | -1.22% | -1.96% | -4.04% | -4.86% | -5.58% |
| % Change year | +0.81% | -0.13% | -2.97% | -4.14% | -5.14% |
