Good Evening, There was more selling today. Is anyone surprised? There are only so many ways to describe the negative action in this market. It’s like trying to reinvent the wheel. The narrative remains the same. There’s too much uncertainty. There political uncertainty, trade uncertainty, and economic uncertainty. You better get comfortable in the fox hole! Because looks like it;s going to be a while before any of this mess gets hashed out. You can read about all that in the news link below. I’m just going to double down on my charts. They will tell me all I need to now whether I pay attention to the news and fundamentals or not. You all already know how I feel about that. Let me say this with regards to the charts. I follow the charts of our TSP Funds first. But second and probably just as important. I follow a group of 12 indicators that I’ve developed over the years. Some of them are proprietary so I won’t share them here. I will say this. Until most or all of them say to get back into equities I will remain in the G Fund. Nine of these 12 indicators told me to sell in late September. You all know the rest of the story. I ignored them in favor of the fundamentals. Those of you that have been with me since the beginning know that we were able to sell before the bear markets in 2000 and 2008. So you already know that we can these indicators. I’ve already explained way too much why we tried and failed with fundamentals this time. I won’t go there again other than to reiterate what I said when I said ‘never again’! That’s the last time I intend to say that. So is anybody wondering what those indicators say now? All 12 say to sell. You can add that to the sell on all three of our equity based charts. I think you all get the picture. Remember what I have been driving home in the last few blogs. It’s not important to be the first one back in the market. It’s only important to get back in it when it’s moving back up. The key in all this is to be patient. What is it the Bible says, Tribulation teaches patience? It certainly applies in this case. Just don’t get in a hurry. There will be plenty of time to jump back in offering a nice opportunity to add to that nest egg.
The days selling left us with the following results: Our TSP remains steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow lost another -1.81%, the Nasdaq -2.99%, and the S&P 500 -2.06%. I seriously doubt that this is anywhere close to being over yet. Praise God for guiding us to safety!
Nasdaq confirms bear market; economic worries sink Wall Street
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -3.92% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/20/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.9779 | 18.0692 | 35.3709 | 43.1034 | 26.5899 |
| $ Change | 0.0013 | -0.0317 | -0.5634 | -0.7633 | -0.0956 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.18% | -1.57% | -1.74% | -0.36% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | +0.49% | -5.07% | -5.82% | -2.22% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +1.42% | -10.50% | -12.47% | -5.26% |
| % Change year | +2.81% | -0.25% | -5.95% | -11.06% | -13.82% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.6152 | 26.6548 | 29.3717 | 31.5117 | 18.0186 |
| $ Change | -0.0486 | -0.1008 | -0.2203 | -0.2832 | -0.1850 |
| % Change day | -0.25% | -0.38% | -0.74% | -0.89% | -1.02% |
| % Change week | -0.80% | -1.26% | -2.56% | -3.07% | -3.52% |
| % Change month | -1.69% | -2.69% | -5.49% | -6.59% | -7.54% |
| % Change year | +0.33% | -0.88% | -4.44% | -5.88% | -7.10% |
We have a half day of trading on Monday which is Christmas eve. It’s time to quit thinking about the market and spend some time with your family. This is a business of patience whether you like it or not. It will be here when you return. Spend a little of that energy that you’ve been using on the market and focus on the reason for the season. Our Savoir Jesus was born in a manger so long ago that the gift of eternal life could be given to all those who believe upon Him. He said that He came that we might have life abundant. So be sure and honor Him with thanks and praise for any success you’ve had both here in TSP and on the street. God bless you all and merry Christmas!
