Good Day, Usually you can sit back and enjoy the holidays but not this year. First the AI trade is off, it’s on bubble and then it’s not and then it’s on again. Now how long will it be until it’s not? Add to that the drama caused by the Fed’s December interest rate decision and it’s been ab absolute mess. It’s been anything but laid back. Usually you can get in or get out and ride through the holidays. Not this year. 2025 has been the most aggravating year with a positive return that I can remember! So where are we at right now? The AI trade is back on. However, I will say this concerning the AI trade. While it is clearly the future, the recent rotation out of the AI trade into the broader market is still taking place. Is this a positive thing or a negative thing?? That’s hard to say. Oh yes I could get on here and convince you that it is either good or bad and have a 50% chance of being right just like all the so called experts that are predicting the future, but as I say on a regular basis that it not what I do. My recent opinion was that the rally broadening out into sectors of the market other than tech is a good thing, but now I’m not sure. I have watched my AI charts heat up and cool off so many times that I’m tired of looking at them. As far as the street goes, I bought Health Care, Industrial, Consumer discretionary, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Financial with a spattering of Tech and I intend to stay there until the market decides where AI is going. I plan on hanging onto my gains! With regard to thrift I am going to stick with the low interest rate small cap theme as long as the charts will permit it, but I will not hesitate to sell and move to the side lines as we enter the New Year should things become shaky. Fundamentally, speaking we have a lot of positive things for the economy as we move into 2026. No tax on over time, no tax on social security, lower interest rates so on and so forth. The economy should move forward. Then on the other hand we are still dealing with a divided government. Will congress try to legislate via a government shutdown again. Will those in the minority throw down their toys and go home or will the adults in the room prevail? Will we see shutdown 2.0?? It’s hard to say and that makes it hard to say what the market will do. We are overdo for a legitimate correction of 10% or more if not an even greater pullback than that. Dare I evening mention the B word? No I think not. So a reset of some kind could easily be in the cards if congress fails to keep the government open. What is the answer? The same as always, which is to keep a closer eye than usual on your charts and be ready to react to anything. Barring some type of unforeseen disaster over the coming two weeks it looks like we will escape 2025 with a decent (Hard earned) return and our focus now should be on keeping it! Be prepared for anything!!!!
The days trading so far has left us with the following returns. Our TDP allotment is currently generating a gain of +1.08%. For comparison, the Dow is trading higher at +0.60%, the Nasdaq +0.62%, and the S&P 500 +0.63%. Praise God we’ll take it! Will we get a Santa rally to end the year? I think so, but I don’t think it will be completely fueled by tech.
S&P 500 rises to start a holiday-shortened week, led by tech: Live updates
Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Hold, F-sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +19.09% for the year not including the days gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/19/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.5609 | 20.8612 | 109.3081 | 101.9108 | 54.7690 |
| $ Change | 0.0022 | -0.0336 | 0.9582 | 1.0485 | 0.3351 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.16% | +0.88% | +1.04% | +0.62% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.33% | +0.13% | -0.43% | +0.42% |
| % Change month | +0.22% | -0.36% | -0.13% | +0.96% | +1.70% |
| % Change year | +4.30% | +7.10% | +17.63% | +13.04% | +30.73% |
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