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12/02/13 - My TSP Guide

12/02/13

Good Evening,

Statistically speaking, the Monday after Thanksgiving has a negative bias. True to form today followed the pattern…

 

Stocks slip on weak Black Friday sales

 

 

The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 63/C, 37/S. Our allocation has gained +18.18% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results:
11/29/13  
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2597 15.8301 23.2839 32.7103 25.1848
$ Change 0.0026 0.0014 -0.0173 -0.0092 0.1557
% Change day +0.02% +0.01% -0.07% -0.03% +0.62%
% Change week +0.05% +0.07% +0.10% +0.74% +0.83%
% Change month +0.18% -0.35% +3.05% +2.49% +0.75%
% Change year +1.69% -1.13% +29.17% +34.40% +20.32%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.7194 21.5256 23.0995 24.4014 13.7909
$ Change 0.0058 0.0176 0.0222 0.0256 0.0172
% Change day +0.03% +0.08% +0.10% +0.10% +0.12%
% Change week +0.11% +0.25% +0.31% +0.35% +0.40%
% Change month +0.58% +1.24% +1.54% +1.74% +1.93%
% Change year +6.35% +14.59% +18.32% +21.08% +23.75%
The bottom line is that we are sitting at or near the top of an extended market that up to date has refused to break down. My thought is that this resilience is due to the FED’s quantitative easing program. It appears that a growing anxiety over the end of this program coupled with the added anxiety of being on top of an extended market is putting a constant drag on the market and probably will do so until it ultimately breaks down for a real correction, if not for even more. Our strategy remains to take advantage of whatever holiday push that we get. All that said, caution is warranted. Should we, at any point in this process, get sell signals we will not hesitate to sell. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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