Good Evening,
The downward pressure continued on the market again today. The question is will it crack?
Stocks: Momentum fading after record run
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. Our current allocation is
63/C, 37/S. It has gained +17.33% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/03/13 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.2622 | 15.8041 | 23.1488 | 32.3988 | 24.8372 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0123 | -0.0729 | -0.1375 | -0.1714 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.08% | -0.31% | -0.42% | -0.69% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.16% | -0.58% | -0.95% | -1.38% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | -0.16% | -0.58% | -0.95% | -1.38% |
| % Change year | +1.71% | -1.29% | +28.42% | +33.12% | +18.66% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.692 | 21.4248 | 22.9612 | 24.2323 | 13.6817 |
| $ Change | -0.0126 | -0.0482 | -0.0660 | -0.0805 | -0.0523 |
| % Change day | -0.08% | -0.22% | -0.29% | -0.33% | -0.38% |
| % Change week | -0.16% | -0.47% | -0.60% | -0.69% | -0.79% |
| % Change month | -0.16% | -0.47% | -0.60% | -0.69% | -0.79% |
| % Change year | +6.18% | +14.05% | +17.61% | +20.24% | +22.77% |
No severe damage yet, but the pressure is starting to build. Here’s today’s chart for the C-Fund. I always use it as the S&P 500 is fairly representative of most of the other charts.
Price broke down below the short-term bearish ascending wedge. The expected resolution of an ascending wedge pattern is a breakdown, which we now have. So as far as the technical expectation of the pattern, it has been met. However, I am of the opinion there is more decline to come based on a lot of supporting evidence.
This reminds me of the last decline we experience in early November. The pressure is building and the charts are deteriorating. Will it finally crack this time? I think if not now, then after New Years. My caution level is high. If the signals come I will sell even if I risk losing the gains of a Santa Rally. Perhaps tomorrow will give us yet another turn around. That’s what I’m hoping for! That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott
