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12/03/13 - My TSP Guide

12/03/13

Good Evening,

The downward pressure continued on the market again today. The question is will it crack?

 

Stocks: Momentum fading after record run

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. Our current allocation is 
63/C, 37/S. It has gained +17.33% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results: 
 
12/03/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.2622 15.8041 23.1488 32.3988 24.8372
$ Change 0.0009 0.0123 -0.0729 -0.1375 -0.1714
% Change day +0.01% +0.08% -0.31% -0.42% -0.69%
% Change week +0.02% -0.16% -0.58% -0.95% -1.38%
% Change month +0.02% -0.16% -0.58% -0.95% -1.38%
% Change year +1.71% -1.29% +28.42% +33.12% +18.66%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.692 21.4248 22.9612 24.2323 13.6817
$ Change -0.0126 -0.0482 -0.0660 -0.0805 -0.0523
% Change day -0.08% -0.22% -0.29% -0.33% -0.38%
% Change week -0.16% -0.47% -0.60% -0.69% -0.79%
% Change month -0.16% -0.47% -0.60% -0.69% -0.79%
% Change year +6.18% +14.05% +17.61% +20.24% +22.77%
No severe damage yet, but the pressure is starting to build. Here’s today’s chart for the C-Fund. I always use it as the S&P 500 is fairly representative of most of the other charts.  
Price broke down below the short-term bearish ascending wedge. The expected resolution of an ascending wedge pattern is a breakdown, which we now have. So as far as the technical expectation of the pattern, it has been met. However, I am of the opinion there is more decline to come based on a lot of supporting evidence.
This reminds me of the last decline we experience in early November. The pressure is building and the charts are deteriorating. Will it finally crack this time?  I think if not now, then after New Years. My caution level is high. If the signals come I will sell even if I risk losing the gains of a Santa Rally. Perhaps tomorrow will give us yet another turn around. That’s what I’m hoping for! That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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