12/03/14

Good Evening!

Stocks went up again today but the action was somewhat sedate. It appears that everything is really waiting for the ECB meeting tomorrow. It seems like the pressure is starting to build for the ECB to make the bond purchases that they discussed in their last meeting. It is my thought that they will follow through on Mario Draghi’s announcement last month to increase their QE. By the matter of fact I have invested both in TSP and AMP accordingly. The aforementioned ECB (European Central  Bank) promise is the reason that the I Fund has been behaving so well recently. We will see whether or not our I Fund strategy is good or not when results of this ECB meeting are announced tomorrow. I feel certain that the ECB will increase their QE (Quantitative Easing). However, the only thing that could throw a wrench in the gears would be if they delayed the bond purchases until later. There has been some talk that they will not increase their QE until March. We’ll see. As far as today, both TSP and AMP posted small gains. I’m not pushing either allotment hard right now and am more than pleased with the steady progress that both are making.  And yes I am aware that the S Fund ruled the roost today. All I have to say to my friends that are ribbing me about that is that it’s going to be a long month……

Cyclicals lead Wall St. higher; Dow, S&P end at records

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 50/C, 50/I. Our allocation is now -0.14% for the year not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
12/02/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.5933 16.6995 27.2216 35.6347 25.1883
$ Change 0.0025 -0.0596 0.1744 0.2399 0.0002
% Change day +0.02% -0.36% +0.64% +0.68% +0.00%
% Change week +0.02% -0.40% -0.04% -0.85% -0.29%
% Change month +0.02% -0.40% -0.04% -0.85% -0.29%
% Change year +2.14% +6.09% +14.02% +5.83% -1.47%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.449 22.9834 24.9271 26.5192 15.0622
$ Change 0.0155 0.0508 0.0717 0.0896 0.0575
% Change day +0.09% +0.22% +0.29% +0.34% +0.38%
% Change week -0.05% -0.14% -0.19% -0.23% -0.25%
% Change month -0.05% -0.14% -0.19% -0.23% -0.25%
% Change year +3.76% +5.45% +6.26% +6.79% +7.10%

Let’s take a look at the SPY with the Decision Point crew tonight. (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
Price has now managed to get back into the small short-term rising trend channel. The PMO turned back up, but like yesterday, it was only a difference of .01 in value. The PMO has been about as flat as it could be this past week. Volume was above-average, which is bullish.

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Conclusion: Despite overbought conditions, the market is still rising. Short-term indicators are in a declining trend but aren’t oversold and intermediate-term indicators are being pushed against the ceiling at the top of their range. A pullback seems likely, if only for a day or two to get intermediate-term indicators out of extremely overbought conditions and get short-term indicators into oversold territory.
Things continue to go as planned. The I Fund took a couple days off though, so here’s to hoping we get a pop from the ECB tomorrow. Nothing has changed. We will continue to monitor our charts for weakness as the market grinds higher into ever increasing resistance. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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