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12/06/13 - My TSP Guide

12/06/13

Good Evening,

Let today be another lesson to those of you that trade with emotion. This is why technical analysis (our trading style) is superior to other styles of investing. As of yesterday, we had five straight days of negative action. The fund with our largest allocation was within one day of giving us a sell signal (using our most conservative set of indicators). With things so negative why not sell and stem more losses? After all, we had a nice profit right? How many of you went out on your own and did just that??? You have to remember how we got the profit to know the answer to that question. An old adage applies here. You have to know where you’ve been to know where you’re going. Three times during this past year we faced identical circumstances. The market was declining and it seemed as if we’d better sell or we might lose it all. Some of you did sell! Not that sell is a dirty word. In our system it is not. However, our system also demands that you be a disciplined trader. You sell to be sure, but only when you have the signal based on the set of indicators that you are using at the time. What indicators you say? That’s where judgement and skill are applied and only experience will give you that. You can’t gain experience (or money for that matter) if you stay in the G Fund all the time. Remember, time is money and money is time. We stayed in the market at one minute until midnight because our charts said to do so and were rewarded for a fourth time in 2013 for doing so. You must have discipline. If you do not, you will fail!! The final thing that you must have that a lot of traders do not is faith. With out faith and trust in God, I don’t care what system you run, you will not succeed. He is and always has been the true source of our success. Give him the all the praise!

 

Dow soars 200 points on jobs report

 

 

The week’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell.  Our allocation remains set at 63/C, 37/S. It has earned +16.93% in the period since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results: 
12/05/13
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.264 15.7479 23.0254 32.3951 24.4965
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0085 -0.0995 0.0109 -0.0767
% Change day +0.01% -0.05% -0.43% +0.03% -0.31%
% Change week +0.03% -0.52% -1.11% -0.96% -2.73%
% Change month +0.03% -0.52% -1.11% -0.96% -2.73%
% Change year +1.72% -1.64% +27.73% +33.11% +17.03%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 16.6679 21.342 22.8516 24.1024 13.5979
$ Change -0.0108 -0.0360 -0.0477 -0.0562 -0.0358
% Change day -0.06% -0.17% -0.21% -0.23% -0.26%
% Change week -0.31% -0.85% -1.07% -1.23% -1.40%
% Change month -0.31% -0.85% -1.07% -1.23% -1.40%
% Change year +6.03% +13.61% +17.05% +19.60% +22.02%
Today was a good day because we are still in the game. Now if we can just get that Santa Rally. We’ll continue to pray and watch the charts. Have a great weekend. See you on Monday.
God bless,
Scott8-)

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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