Good Evening,
So goes oil, so goes the market these days. Oil was up in the morning and along with some good economic news caused the market to gap up at the open and strengthen as the day wore on. However, it dropped in the afternoon and so did stocks giving up around 75% of their gaudy gains. As a result, our TSP allotment closed the day up around +0.45% and AMP added +0.23%. Neither allocation managed to make back all that it dropped in yesterday’s sell off.
Wall St. bounces back after 3-day slump; off day’s highs
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 80/C, 20/S. Our allocation is now -2.10% on the year not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/10/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5997 | 16.767 | 26.7035 | 35.178 | 24.6789 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | 0.0306 | -0.4416 | -0.7176 | -0.1950 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.18% | -1.63% | -2.00% | -0.78% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.51% | -2.35% | -2.25% | -1.91% |
| % Change month | +0.07% | +0.00% | -1.94% | -2.12% | -2.30% |
| % Change year | +2.19% | +6.51% | +11.85% | +4.48% | -3.46% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.3945 | 22.7765 | 24.6371 | 26.1646 | 14.8318 |
| $ Change | -0.0488 | -0.1658 | -0.2346 | -0.2919 | -0.1867 |
| % Change day | -0.28% | -0.72% | -0.94% | -1.10% | -1.24% |
| % Change week | -0.40% | -1.09% | -1.42% | -1.64% | -1.87% |
| % Change month | -0.36% | -1.03% | -1.35% | -1.56% | -1.78% |
| % Change year | +3.44% | +4.50% | +5.02% | +5.36% | +5.46% |
Let’s take a look at the C Fund. (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
The C Fund represents the overall market very well. With the recent downturn, it has clearly broken through its lower trend line and has now tested lower resistance at 2020. The other three indicators (PMO. MAC-D, Wms%R) are all currently on sell signals. Our focus now is now on two things: #1 Support, which is now set at 2020 and also happens to be the 50 EMA. Should price pass through this area it would give a sell signal which would result in an overall sell signal for the C Fund. You can ditto that for the S Fund as well; its chart is very similar to this one. Price tested that support yesterday and continued higher today. Should it retest and breach that level, the next support would be at 1860 and that is bad. #2 We are watching the upper trend line of the newly formed descending channel. It would go a go a long way toward repairing this damage if price passes though it. It would be especially good if price could regain its place above the lower trend line in the former ascending channel. That would mean a strong close for this fund and the market for the year. However, we must be cognizant of a possible downward trend that may be forming and not hesitate to sell should that signal be generated as we have described above! If that sell signal is generated, it would be my recommendation to get our of equities all together and head for for the G or F Fund or both.
