Good Evening,
Not that it wasn’t anticipated, but overall today was another disappointing day. The S-Fund was able to cover some of the ground that it lost. However, everything else was down.
No, Virginia. There is no Santa Claus rally
The day’s action left us with the following signals; C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Sell. Our allocation remains the same at 63/C, 37/S. It has earned +16.28% since 03/11/13. Here are the latest posted results.
| 12/11/13 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.2693 | 15.7848 | 22.9951 | 31.982 | 24.6148 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | -0.0339 | -0.2609 | -0.5170 | -0.1104 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.21% | -1.12% | -1.59% | -0.45% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.22% | -1.25% | -1.92% | -0.10% |
| % Change month | +0.07% | -0.29% | -1.24% | -2.23% | -2.26% |
| % Change year | +1.76% | -1.41% | +27.57% | +31.41% | +17.60% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.6701 | 21.3339 | 22.8325 | 24.072 | 13.5785 |
| $ Change | -0.0355 | -0.1152 | -0.1593 | -0.1963 | -0.1238 |
| % Change day | -0.21% | -0.54% | -0.69% | -0.81% | -0.90% |
| % Change week | -0.18% | -0.51% | -0.67% | -0.80% | -0.89% |
| % Change month | -0.29% | -0.89% | -1.16% | -1.35% | -1.54% |
| % Change year | +6.04% | +13.57% | +16.95% | +19.45% | +21.84% |
Here is the latest C-Fund chart for my fellow technical analysts. Once again, just a reminder, the charts for the C and S Funds are very similar.
There have been three minor corrections since the May top. Assuming that this is another correction of similar magnitude, the logical completion is around 1700. But that is just speculation.
The bottom line is we still don’t have a sell signal as the current price is still trading above the 50 EMA. As long as it trades above the 50 EMA, the 20 will not cross over the 50 EMA on the way down which will keep us in the game. Actually, I am running the 5 EMA as my first indicator and not the 20. The same thing applies to it as well. The fund must trade under its 50 EMA for the 5 or the 20 EMA’s to ever make a negative cross over. That said, the EMA’s are far from the only indicator that we use, but they are usually the last one to give a sell signal. One encouraging thing worth noting is the S Fund, which has 37% of our allocation, made a positive gain today which pulled some of our indicators up just a little on its chart. Should we get some follow through we may yet stay in the game indeed. Should we get a sell signal in the S or C funds, we will re-balance our allocation with 100% to the remaining fund that does not have a sell signal. Should we get a sell signal in both funds, we will vacate to the G fund barring a miracle recovery in the F fund. As I said before, Santa Rally or no Santa Rally, I will sell if I get a sell signal and I will not re-enter equities until I have another buy signal. Remember, the motto of our group is “It’s not what you make, it’s what you keep!” That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Have a nice evening.
Scott
