12/16/15

Good Evening, Janet Yellen and gang raised rates as expected today and the market rallied. The amount of the raise was 25 basis points or .25%. Of course this is the rate that banks are charged overnight for borrowing. One could say that the reaction was totally anticipated, but I say that a sell the news reaction was a possibility and could still take place on a delayed basis. For now at least, those that held firm were rewarded and those that adhered to traditional old school tactics were punished just as they have been since the great recession. I’m afraid this is the new norm as the machines seek to manipulate and take advantage of human emotions. Something that the skilled trader used to be able to use to his advantage. Now, for the most part it’s buy and hold and Katie bar the door when you don’t. That said, there have always been bear markets and I still believe that there will always be bear markets. I don’t intend to change. I will remain defensive by nature. Why? Holding blindly, may lead to greater profits now. However, one has to ask, with the machines propping the market up for so long will the next bear market be even more severe and if that’s the case will the out performance now be worth it??? I still say no. Better to be safe than sorry!

The days rally left us with the following results:  Our TSP allotment was steady in the G Fund. For comparison the Dow gained +1.28%, the Nasdaq +1.52%, and the S&P 500 +1.45%.

 

Stocks Rally as Fed Lifts Months of Uncertainty

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now +0.16% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

12/15/15 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.9015 16.9483 27.531 34.9541 23.6595
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0292 0.2907 0.4508 0.1273
% Change day +0.01% -0.17% +1.07% +1.31% +0.54%
% Change week +0.02% -0.64% +1.55% +0.67% +0.06%
% Change month +0.09% -0.34% -1.68% -4.68% -3.80%
% Change year +1.95% +0.87% +1.35% -3.70% -2.31%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.7354 23.1105 24.9313 26.4149 14.9258
$ Change 0.0334 0.1042 0.1512 0.1879 0.1197
% Change day +0.19% +0.45% +0.61% +0.72% +0.81%
% Change week +0.19% +0.44% +0.58% +0.67% +0.75%
% Change month -0.49% -1.34% -1.84% -2.19% -2.50%
% Change year +1.63% +0.92% +0.50% +0.14% -0.22%

 

 Lets take a look at the charts: (All signals annotated with Green Circles)
C Fund: The C Fund generated a neutral signal today using our current set of indicators when the 5 EMA moved back up through the 50 EMA. The Acc/Dist line indicates that a lot of money is flowing back into the C Fund. The SCTR supports this with an improved reading of 87.7. We’ll wait for a buy signal before we jump back in. There may be some downside yet!
C Fund
S Fund: Improving but still a sell. An SCTR of 42.2 tells us to stay away for now! Acumm/Dist tells us that money is flowing into this MidCap blend. It should continue to improve.
S Fund
I Fund: Had a monster day but still a sell. An SCTR of 45,5 tells us all we need to know.
I Fund
F Fund: Interest rates or going up and bonds are going down, The F Fund generated a sell signal with the PMO and MACD moving into negative configurations. The Acumm/Dist line tells us that big money managers are taking their money out of bonds!
F Fund
It looks like the C fund will generate a buy signal soon. However, it has not done so yet so we’ll wait and see if we can bypass some possible downside. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades. Have a nice evening.  
 
 God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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