12/20/17

Good Evening, The market ended slightly down to flat after lawmakers passed historic tax reform legislation today. While many talking heads are saying “that’s it” the tax reduction bill is priced in, I’m more inclined to think that the market is pausing while investors try to figure out which companies will benefit the most from corporate tax cuts. Some of that will come from diligent research and some will come from what the companies have to say regarding the new tax code. For instance company XYZ may announce that they are repatriating a billion dollars from off shore accounts and will use it to buy back shares and build a new factory or company ABC may upgrade their forecast for 2018. There will be a lot of that kind of stuff going on in the coming weeks. After that occurs I look for the improved business climate in the US to improve stock valuations which of course will give the current uptrend legs!

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment came out on top with a modest gain of +0.17%. For comparison, the Dow fell back -0.11%, the Nasdaq -0.04% and the S&P 500 -0.08%. Praise God for the positive day!

 

Wall Street edges lower, pauses as tax bill clears Congress

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +18.99% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results: 

 

12/19/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.5284 18.0384 37.7018 48.2994 30.5123
$ Change 0.0010 -0.0642 -0.1220 -0.2790 -0.1288
% Change day +0.01% -0.35% -0.32% -0.57% -0.42%
% Change week +0.03% -0.51% +0.22% +0.48% +1.06%
% Change month +0.12% +0.05% +1.36% +0.12% +0.47%
% Change year +2.25% +3.38% +22.12% +17.81% +24.02%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.5246 26.8461 30.6713 33.3999 19.3472
$ Change -0.0185 -0.0435 -0.0808 -0.1035 -0.0674
% Change day -0.09% -0.16% -0.26% -0.31% -0.35%
% Change week +0.09% +0.17% +0.29% +0.34% +0.40%
% Change month +0.28% +0.41% +0.60% +0.68% +0.74%
% Change year +6.05% +9.68% +14.29% +16.49% +18.51%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:  The F Fund generated an overall sell signal today when the PMO, MACD, and Wms %R all moved into negative configurations. Also of note, Price broke through the lower trend line and closed below it’s 100 EMA. All very bearish for bonds. I take this as a pretty solid sign that stocks are going to rise. After all, the money coming out of bonds has to go somewhere!

Now the we survived the tax bill mode our job is to keep a close eye on the charts for any potential changes. I feel that we are in the right place, but I am a reactive trader and will always make my investment decisions on what I see before me on the charts and not from I how I feel. I have been surprised before and I’m sure I’ll get surprised again. That said, I see no reason on the charts to depart from our plan! That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and we’ll do it all again tomorrow.

God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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