Good Evening, Just three more days until Christmas. Wow, how time flies. It’s seems like just a short year ago we were talking about the year (2016) to come and how we thought that a 5 percent return would be good. We talked about how the market was overvalued and probably couldn’t move any higher. Well, that’s the reason we are reactive traders and not speculative traders. If we were in the business of speculation it’s rather obvious that we’d lose our shirt. Such as it is, we are currently sitting on twice the return we predicted and the chances are likely that we can hold onto most or all of it if not add to it before the year ends. I thank God for that!
Today’s action had bit of a negative spin on it as the Dow again failed to reach the coveted 20,000 level. Really, does 20,000 really make any difference? None at all. It makes a nice news story, but it you really think about it the Dow is an index made up of only 30 blue chip stocks. Hardly a reliable indicator of the whole market. Nonetheless, it gives the media something to talk about and talking is what they love to do…… The slow action is being blamed on a rumor that the Trump administration is considering a tariff of 10% on imported goods. This resulted in the consumer discretionary sector getting hit hard which led the market as a whole down. Otherwise, I believe we might have had a decent day with the revision on the GDP which is now reported to have grown at a 3.5% rate verses a previously reported 3.2% rate.
The days trading left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment dropped 0.76%. For comparison the Dow lost -0.12%, the Nasdaq -0.44%, and the S&P 500 -0.19%.
Dow Retreats From 20,000 Level in Lead-Up to Christmas Break
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allotment is now +9.99% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 12/21/16 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.177 | 17.324 | 31.2199 | 41.4709 | 24.4436 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | 0.0295 | -0.0758 | -0.1892 | 0.0524 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.17% | -0.24% | -0.45% | +0.21% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.41% | +0.33% | +0.64% | +0.36% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | -0.56% | +3.13% | +2.99% | +2.78% |
| % Change year | +1.75% | +2.18% | +13.27% | +17.70% | +1.45% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 18.4152 | 24.5205 | 26.919 | 28.7807 | 16.4005 |
| $ Change | -0.0022 | -0.0111 | -0.0205 | -0.0267 | -0.0183 |
| % Change day | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.09% | -0.11% |
| % Change week | +0.13% | +0.21% | +0.28% | +0.32% | +0.35% |
| % Change month | +0.67% | +1.31% | +1.90% | +2.21% | +2.51% |
| % Change year | +3.61% | +5.65% | +7.40% | +8.31% | +9.15% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall Neutral signal today when the PMO passed down through it’s signal line with the MACD already in a negative configuration. Any time two or more (but not all) of our signals are in negative configurations on any given chart it is Neutral.
I Fund:
F Fund:
There’s a little downward pressure on equities right now. It’s nothing serious just yet, but we’ll have to keep an eye on things and make sure that the chart for the S Fund doesn’t generate a sell signal. Remember, that under our current system we will not initiate an interfund transfer until the signal has been confirmed 5 trading sessions later. That prevents most of the whipsaw signals that tend to occur so frequently these days. That’s all for tonight. Get out there and finish all that last minute shopping!
