12/23/14

Good Evening,

The market seemed kind of tired this morning but got a pop from a strong GDP report. The report showed that the 3rd quarter GDP grew at a rate of 5%. That was the best reading since 2003. In addition, there was another boost from a small rise in the price of crude oil with sweet light crude closing higher at 57.12 a barrel. As for as I’m concerned, this market is all about oil and the FED. Barring a disaster, everything else is a side line. The Dow closed at a new record high of 18,069.22. I can still hear CNBC cheering. To me, other than a little bit of psychology, it means nothing. I’d much rather see a nice correction followed by some big gains rather than inching up to new records. I’d much rather make money than set records. The Dow rose +0.36%, the S&P +0.17%, and the Nasdaq dropped -0.33%. Hardly a stellar day for gains, but higher nonetheless. TSP held steady today and AMP beat the big three with a solid gain of +0.486%. For those of you keeping score, that’s yesterday’s loss back plus some…

Dow ends above 18,000 for first time on strong GDP report

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Sell, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -3.30% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.6093 16.7755 27.4135 36.2566 24.587
$ Change 0.0024 0.0152 0.1077 0.1432 0.1062
% Change day +0.02% +0.09% +0.39% +0.40% +0.43%
% Change week +0.02% +0.09% +0.39% +0.40% +0.43%
% Change month +0.13% +0.05% +0.67% +0.88% -2.67%
% Change year +2.26% +6.57% +14.82% +7.68% -3.82%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.4741 22.9994 24.9459 26.5461 15.0687
$ Change 0.0173 0.0505 0.0690 0.0836 0.0532
% Change day +0.10% +0.22% +0.28% +0.32% +0.35%
% Change week +0.10% +0.22% +0.28% +0.32% +0.35%
% Change month +0.09% -0.07% -0.11% -0.13% -0.21%
% Change year +3.91% +5.52% +6.34% +6.89% +7.15%
Here’s what the SPY looked like today. (Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
Price snuck up above horizontal resistance at the top of the trading range. The PMO continues to tease as it narrows in on a positive crossover which would generate a PMO BUY signal. Volume continues to decrease and likely will continue to the rest of this week.
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Conclusion: Indicators remain positive in all three time frames, but short-term indicators have reached extremely overbought territory which hint at a pullback in the shorter term before the rally continues in the intermediate term.
We’ll keep an eye on our charts. Especially the one for oil. It currently has more sway on the market than any other factor except the FED. I don’t see that changing in the immediate future.  While I am stuck in the G fund, I understand that several of you are still invested in other areas. Just a reminder that I read the charts and note the signals in each and every message that I send. I have some folks that solely use the signals to formulate their allocations and in some cases (in 2014 most cases) out-perform my allocation. These signals can be very useful in making decisions when you are out of step with our allocation. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening. For you procrastinators, it’s the next to the last evening to get those last minute gifts! God bless,
Scott8-)

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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