Good Evening, I could write a book about what’s going on right now, but I don’t think I’ll do that. Sometimes the simple approach is the best approach. Say what you’ve got to say and get it over with…… Well here it is. Tomorrow is if not the most important then one of the most important market days this year. The March Fed meeting concludes and they will make a statement concerning current monetary policy following the close of the meeting. This is the first meeting since the spike in treasury rates. Whatever is said here will move the market one way or the other. I doubt seriously that it will stay the same. The statement is always at 2:00 PM Eastern Time and is given by the Fed Chairman which is Jerome Powell. So watch the market about that time and you’ll see the move. It’s already a forgone conclusion that there will be no interest rate increase. J Powell has repeated many times recently that there will probably not be a rate increase until 2023. However, many market pundits insist that the Fed’s hand will be forced a lot sooner than that due to inflation, You already know the whole deal about how investors feel about higher rates resulting from inflation putting the kibosh on growth stocks and especially the high flying tech growth stocks that have brought us back from last winters bear market. We’ve all but worn that subject our recently. If you’re reading this blog for the first time and don’t know what I’m talking about you can review the last few blogs in our archives and get caught up. Another thing they will be closely watching for is any indication that the Fed will taper their bond buying program. They have been buying bonds to support the economy since the financial crisis in 2008 which of course supports the price of bonds. The loss of this support will only cause bond prices to drop faster and bond prices and yields move in opposite directions So if bond prices drop then the dreaded treasury yield will rise even more. We definitely don’t want to hear the word TAPER anywhere in the statement. Tomorrow afternoons statement will be a huge challenge for the Fed Chairman. He must reassure Americans that the economy is improving but he must not do it in such a manner that convinces investors that the economy will not improve so fast that it leads to high inflation which will cause the Fed to raise rates and/or taper bond purchases. Folks, there’s power in this statement! Make no mistake it will shape the market for the foreseeable future. Whatever Jerome Powell says or even what he doesn’t say will move this market in a major way. I do not envy him. He needs to keep the economy recovering and the market from selling off both at the same time. The only way he can do that is for his statement to be neither too hot nor too cold. It must be just right. It must be Goldilocks warm and there’s no room for error. All I can say is God’s will be done. I’ll be praying about 2:00PM and I hope you will be too.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allocation finished the day in the red at -1.33%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.39%, the Nasdaq managed a slight gain of +0.09%, and the S&P 500 slipped -0.16%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, and F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +13.41% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.
| 03/15/21 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.5428 | 20.5077 | 59.2756 | 84.1508 | 36.7132 |
| $ Change | 0.0019 | 0.0198 | 0.3850 | 0.8598 | 0.0228 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.10% | +0.65% | +1.03% | +0.06% |
| % Change week | +0.01% | +0.10% | +0.65% | +1.03% | +0.06% |
| % Change month | +0.06% | -1.12% | +4.23% | +4.80% | +2.56% |
| % Change year | +0.21% | -3.25% | +6.02% | +13.41% | +3.74% |
| Fund | L INC | L 2025 | L 2030 | L 2035 | L 2040 |
| Price | 22.577 | 11.4779 | 40.1695 | 12.0239 | 45.3553 |
| $ Change | 0.0282 | 0.0285 | 0.1245 | 0.0409 | 0.1673 |
| % Change day | +0.13% | +0.25% | +0.31% | +0.34% | +0.37% |
| % Change week | +0.13% | +0.25% | +0.31% | +0.34% | +0.37% |
| % Change month | +0.81% | +1.73% | +2.18% | +2.39% | +2.61% |
| % Change year | +1.34% | +2.85% | +3.59% | +3.93% | +4.29% |
| Fund | L 2045 | L 2050 | L 2055 | L 2060 | L 2065 |
| Price | 12.3938 | 27.0817 | 13.1911 | 13.191 | 13.1908 |
| $ Change | 0.0490 | 0.1138 | 0.0658 | 0.0658 | 0.0658 |
| % Change day | +0.40% | +0.42% | +0.50% | +0.50% | +0.50% |
| % Change week | +0.40% | +0.42% | +0.50% | +0.50% | +0.50% |
| % Change month | +2.79% | +2.97% | +3.71% | +3.71% | +3.71% |
| % Change year | +4.61% | +4.93% | +6.28% | +6.28% | +6.27% |
