Good Evening,
Well the cattle saw a mouse and stampeded again. Shout it from the mountain tops. Their going to taper!! So what, if all the so called experts would just exhibit a little patience– not to mention common sense– we could all make some money before the end of the year. But no, they all have to panic. No wonder they lose money!! If they keep this up, we’ll be lucky if anyone is able to stay in the market until the FED meets next week. Who cares if they taper? That means the economy is getting better. Is there anyone out there that thinks they are going to do this forever? I probably shouldn’t ask that question because chances are there’s some that really believe that. Some of them are obviously programmers as well….when the machines see the word taper in the headlines they sell and sell and sell. May they get out and stay out. They don’t have the proper temperament to trade stocks. All they do is make it hard on the rest of us. How many times have they done this since last May?
Now that I’m done ranting and raving… Where do we go from here? It’s obvious that we had a bad day. Everyone in the market had a bad day. The difference is we won’t panic. We never do. We will trust in the Lord and read our charts! Right now the charts for all of our funds have suffered a little damage. However, they were in pretty good shape to begin with so none of them gave us a sell signal today. As I said I would do back in November, I switched to the most sensitive set of indicators I have. In other words they will sell quickly. We will continue to watch them closely, but once again right now they are showing neutral and not sell. We’ll try to hang in there until next week if we can. We will not be able to make it without selling off unless we get a bounce within the next day or two. The market must show some strength or we will be out of there, no questions asked.
Dow falls 130 points
| 12/10/13 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.2684 | 15.8187 | 23.256 | 32.499 | 24.7252 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0434 | -0.0738 | -0.1333 | -0.0377 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.28% | -0.32% | -0.41% | -0.15% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.43% | -0.13% | -0.33% | +0.34% |
| % Change month | +0.06% | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.65% | -1.82% |
| % Change year | +1.76% | -1.20% | +29.01% | +33.54% | +18.12% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 16.7056 | 21.4491 | 22.9918 | 24.2683 | 13.7023 |
| $ Change | -0.0061 | -0.0272 | -0.0385 | -0.0477 | -0.0308 |
| % Change day | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.17% | -0.20% | -0.22% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.03% | +0.02% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| % Change month | -0.08% | -0.36% | -0.47% | -0.55% | -0.64% |
| % Change year | +6.27% | +14.18% | +17.77% | +20.42% | +22.96% |
Look at the chart for the C Fund today… As you can see 5 EMA is moving toward a negative crossover of the 50 EMA (That’s exponential moving average for you rookies). If that happens, it will be our fourth and final sell signal barring the improvement of any of our other indicators. In other words, if the cross over occurs and the other indicators remain negative, we will sell. Any move from equities would probably be to the G-Fund unless the F Fund generates a buy signal or at least something close to one. Problem with that is that bonds are hit hardest by the taper rumors. When traders feel the FED is going to ease up on the bond buying program they dump bonds. That could have something to do with the fact that the FED is purchasing 85 billion in bonds each month. Maybe just a little as the Fund is made up of what? Bonds. We’ll pray for another of those patented V-Shaped bounces that have occurred for the past two years or so. I don’t anticipate any changes in the character of the market until after the FED meets, which I think is on next Wednesday. As for myself, if I get a sell signal I will sell and call it a year whether or not I believe there will be a rally, but as Vince Lombardy used to say “It ain’t over until the fat lady sings”. That’s all for tonight. Trust in God and He will continue to guide us as He always has. Have a nice evening.
