Good Morning, Writing this blog has been a challenge for me since I returned from vacation. Today they refreshed the word press at the website and for some unknown reason I am unable to sign in from my PC. I did update my laptop since last week. So I now have a newer more powerful machine. However, it is an entirely new operating system as I decided to up grade to a Mac Pro from and HP with windows. I thought to myself “no problem, I already have an I phone and an I pad”. I can operate that with ease right? Well, not exactly…. I know those of you with Apple laptops are laughing at me now. I can understand that as I’m also laughing at myself. The reality of this is that this is not an easy thing after using windows based systems my whole life. Nonetheless, I am determined as in all things to learn this system as well. One problem I am currently experiencing is uploading the charts. So far I have not been able to get them from this PC to the WordPress so we will see how it goes. I have been able to load the charts onto our Facebook page. So if I am unable to load them here then we will load them there. Life will go on. I’m sure between myself and the technical folks we will eventually solve this problem, but for now we’ll just have to wing it. So here goes!
This week it’s the same old thing with a different emphasis. This week the emphasis is on tariffs. President Trump has issued a new spat of warnings to several countries that I guess are not negotiating in good faith He is setting a new deadline for them in August at which time they will have a trade agreement or additional tariffs will kick in. It is my understanding that he is sending them all letters today. The administration has said that these dates may not be hard and fast if the countries are negotiating in good faith, but for now the tariff axe will fall. I know we have used this description a lot but this market is literally day to day based on a particular days tariff news. If there is no tariff news then the market moves it’s attention to the Fed and the economy. Folks, this is not a set if or forget it market. You literally have to be watching every day or else. That makes it stressful to say the least. Long range plans? I don’t think so. If you don’t believe me then read some of the guidance that companies are putting out in their quarterly reports. It’s more than obvious that they are just trying to get to the end of this tariff situation before they make any truly long range commitments. This market is fluid!
Now how about the Fed? I’m reasonably sure that the Fed will not make an interest rate decrease in July. While I have been saying they will do so I am beginning to wonder about that as more and more analysts and firms are now saying that there will be no rate cuts until 2026. Last weeks better than expected jobs report all but guaranteed that there will be no rate decrease in July. The Fed remains concerned about inflation and is in no hurry to decrease rates until inflation or employment or both drop. This results in the market being more data driven than ever. It absolutely does look like the Fed will have no incentive to decrease rates for the remainder of this year, but I will remind everyone that this can change quickly depending on the next labor or inflation report. I don’t like it anymore than you do, but we are forced to revisit our investment decisions on a day to day basis. Don’t like it today? It may well change tomorrow.
One more not to be an overlooked factor in negotiating this “short term” market is the potential for new tariff deals. Each new deal we get gives the market a boost for at least a day. I might add that the more new deals we get the closer we are to the end of the trade war. I am beginning to agree with others that we’ll likely not see any interest rate decreases until the trade war is over. The administration has said they will probably be announcing many new deals over the coming days and weeks. So the question is how fast will this go? One thing to keep in mind is that trade deals never move quickly. Thus, there will be many new deadlines in the news. Trade negotiations are often long and drawn out processes and there are usually not this many going on at the same time which leads me to believe that this trade war may not end until 2026. If that is the case then there will be many trade announcements, deadlines, and deals. This will keep the Fed on pins and needles regarding inflation. So they will not be inclined to reduce rates unless a change in the data forces them to do so. Right now the economy is resilient so don’t hold your breath while you wait for that to happen. Why all the talk about the Fed reducing rates? Make no mistake, the market wants and expects lower rates. It loves cheap money more than anything.
Today’s trading has generated the following results: Currently our TSP allotment is trading higher at +0.30%. For comparison, The Dow is giving up -0.27%, the Nasdaq is flat at +0.00%, and the S&P 500 is slightly lower at -0.07%. Praise God that the recent action has been good for us.
S&P 500 is little changed as investors look to recover from Monday’s tariff shock: Live updates
Recent action has left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +11.28% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 07/07/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.1871 | 20.1212 | 99.096 | 93.3167 | 49.5056 |
| $ Change | 0.0091 | -0.0459 | -0.7806 | -0.9849 | -0.5152 |
| % Change day | +0.05% | -0.23% | -0.78% | -1.04% | -1.03% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | -0.23% | -0.78% | -1.04% | -1.03% |
| % Change month | +0.08% | -0.69% | +0.43% | +1.37% | -0.44% |
| % Change year | +2.31% | +3.30% | +6.64% | +3.51% | +18.16% |
Just a note about the tracker. My last interfund transfer didn’t take effect because of the poor internet connection that I had while I was on vacation. I have that problem solved now. Thank you Mr. Musk. However, the auto tracker still had me in the G Fund . So our returns are actually 4 percent better than the auto tracker shows. Just another pain in this aggravating year, but I’ll take it. I’d rather have a better return than the auto tracker reflects than visa versa…..LOL. I thank God for our return. Just know that you’ll have to look on your actual TSP account to know your return because this one is now inaccurate. I’m not going to mention this every week so try to keep it in mind. One more thing. Rather than showing the actual charts I was forced to post links to the charts. So simply click on the fund that you want to see and the chart will appear. Thank you all so much for your patience. That’s all for this week. Have a nice day and may God continue to bless your trades.
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