Good Evening, It’s been another wild week even though the VIX at 18.17 doesn’t really reflect it. Of course the low number for the VIX tells us to hang in there for now which we are doing. I still believe we’ll see a pullback, but I’m just not sure it will be a tradable pullback. We’ll watch our charts and see what it does. The market was gaining traction prior to a hot PPI report late last week. Since then it seems more like it’s in a slow and labored grind higher with very little conviction for the market to move one way or the other at this time. However, there are two things providing at least a little momentum. Those are earnings (which are overwhelmingly positive) and a belief by many investors that the Fed will reduce rates at their September meeting. While that may be possible, I fail to share their optimism and still think the first rate cut won’t come until November. It seems like the Trump/Powell test of wills will not be so easily resolved. For the record, I support a rate cut at this time and think we should have had one in July. Either way, whether the first rate cut comes in November or in September our strategy remains the same. We will watch the charts and react to what we see. Here is what you must consider with regard to a rate cut. It we get one the market will surely rally and it will be risk off until the first of the new year. If we do not we will get a selloff which I think will be tradable. If that is the case our charts will generate sell signals and we will have to move to either the G or the F Fund. Although the F Fund will probably be off the table in that scenario as treasury rates will almost surely rise. We will see about that, but one thing is for sure. The current market action will not leave us for good until we actually get a rate cut. As far as the earnings reports go there will likely be over 80% of them that will beat estimates. While this will give the market some support it will be limited as frankly the bar for earnings was set very low last quarter due to the uncertainty created be ongoing trade sanctions and negotiations. Other things to consider are positive trade deal announcements and an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine. So to sum it up, an end to anything with the word war on the end will give the market a boost, be it a trade war or a shooting war. We must be prepared for war but let us always pray for peace! However, make no mistake about one thing. The Holy Grail for getting this market moving again is the resumption of rate cuts by the FED. It’s time J. Powell. Cut the rates and quit holding the American people hostage. We know Trump called you a name or two but this is much bigger than that. So be the adult in the room and cut the darn rates!!!!!!!!
The end of trading Friday left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment ended the day lower around-0.26%. For comparison, the Dow bucked the trend and finished the day higher at +0.08%, the Nasdaq was in the red at -0.40%, and the S&P 500 give up -0.23%. All the major indices did manage to end the week with gains, but I must say that Fridays action still left us all with a bad taste in our mouths……. We do thank God for the gains that we have at this time and ardently pray for His favor in the future!
S&P 500 closes lower Friday, but logs its second weekly gain
The weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Hold, I-Buy, F-Hold. Our TSP allocation is now +12.36% on the year. Please remember that the return is 4 1/2 percent higher than the Auto Tracker reflects. One of our trades failed to go through due to a bad internet connection. So 12.36% is the accurate figure. Of course it will be the end of the year before those figures will agree again! Here are the latest posted results.
| 08/15/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.2759 | 20.3334 | 102.7072 | 95.6365 | 51.1673 |
| $ Change | 0.0023 | -0.0319 | -0.2746 | -0.2953 | 0.2719 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.16% | -0.27% | -0.31% | +0.53% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | -0.03% | +0.99% | +1.90% | +1.44% |
| % Change month | +0.18% | +0.61% | +1.80% | +1.33% | +4.49% |
| % Change year | +2.78% | +4.39% | +10.52% | +6.08% | +22.13% |
Hang in there. If we get our rate increase before the end of the year we should end 2025 with a nice return. Keep praying and praising our God who supplies all our needs. He is a good Father!! That’s all for this week. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
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