Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price Index or PPI which is basically a measure of wholesale prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI)  measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and services.  The other two of course are the the CPI (Consumer Price index) and the Fed favorite PCE (personal consumption price index). Following that, the train will make a stop on Thursday morning at the CPI which is the Feds 2nd favorite measure if inflation.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available. The Fed also watches what is referred to as the Core CPI which excludes energy and food. Our train will then head home to its final destination on the 17th of September which will be the conclusion of the September Fed meeting with the customary policy announcement and following press conference at 2:00 PM ET. You would think that everything would be cut and dried at this point according to fundamentals, but actually, this is where the speculation starts and this is where our investment philosophy differs greatly from fundamental investors. You see fundamental investors for the most part react to what they think should happen. When they are right, they are really right, but when they are wrong…… On the other hand we react to what we see happening on our charts which of course are based on mathematics. There are four basic questions that will have to be answered on the last day of the Fed meeting. #1 Will there be a rate increase? #2 How much will that increase be. #4 What does the Fed statement have to say about the future schedule of increases and finally and most imp0rtantly #4 How will the market react to all this???? As a fundamental investor you may get all these things totally correct and still end up losing money. Nobody and I mean nobody ever knows 100% for sure how the market will react to a report or piece of news. In a perfect world we would like to think we do but this is not a perfect world.  So we must wait for the event, see what happens and then check our charts. Everything else is merely speculation. That said, lets speculate just a little bit. It’s Okay to know what to expect and and have a plan of how we might react to it. There are many folks that now think the Fed will reduce rates by a half point but I don’t agree with that. I think given the current data that the Fed will decrease the rates a quarter point in September and a quarter point again in November. Will that satisfy the market? I think so, but again, we will see. My expectation is that if all goes well the market will rally into the new year. I would be amiss not to encourage each and everyone in this group to continue to pray to God who guides our hand, that He will continue to do just that. Be sure and give Him all the praise for He and He alone is worthy. He is the true reason for any success that we enjoy here. I’ll leave it at that.

The days trading has so far generated the following results. Currently our TSP allotment is trading higher at +0.32%.  For comparison, the Dow is up +0.22%, the Nasdaq +0.76%, and the S&P 500 +0.36%. Praise God for another good day!

S&P 500 rises to start the week as traders look ahead to key inflation data: Live updates

Current action had left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +16.35% on the year. Here are the most recent posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.