Good Morning, Wow! What a week. What a week. What a week!! It’s setting up to be the perfect storm! Let me explain. It all started with Fridays CPI report which came in softer than expected. The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for readings of 0.4% and 3.1%, respectively. The annual rate reflected a 0.1 percentage point uptick from August. Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, compared with estimates of 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively. Core CPI on a monthly basis had posted 0.3% gains in both July and August. The CPI reading is the only official economic data allowed to be released during the government shutdown. So that made it the only game in town. Why was is so important. Fast forward to this week. The Fed begins their late October meeting tomorrow which ends on Wednesday with the customary statement and press conference at 2:00 PM ET. The CPI report was basically a green light for the Fed to decrease interest rates another quarter point. According the the Feds dot plan they are scheduled to reduce rates two more times in 2025. This would keep them on schedule with that. I’m sure some of this is already priced in, but nonetheless, the market will indeed get a boost if interest rates are reduced again. One more comment on the subject. We are and have been invested in the S Fund which is a blend of Small and Mid Cap stocks and this is the reason we have stayed the course. Small and Midcap stocks always outperform in a falling rate environment as they benefit the most from lower interest rates. If all goes according to plan, we should reap the benefit from our patience through the close of the year. We always do things for a reason. Sometimes they work out and sometimes they don’t. It looks like this will be one of the times when it does! The rate decrease and it alone is enough to move this market forward, but remember, I said this week could be the perfect storm! So what could make it even better? Why a trade deal with China of course. Just last week the market was bucking headwinds as the trade dispute with China seemed to be intensifying. Well the weekend brought news that the US and China were softening their rhetoric and are actually close to a trade deal and that President’s Trump and Xi would likely meet to finalize the deal on Thursday. Folks we we already have a nice fire from the CPI and Rate decrease. Add to it a trade deal with China and the market will explode into the New Year. This is exactly what we wanted to happen and if if does we will end the year with a very nice return! So keep praying to the One who guides our investments. Give Him praise for allowing us to be in the position to benefit from this “storm”. Make no mistake. None of it is possible without Him!!!!
The days trading so far has left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is up at the moment +1.04%. For comparison, the Dow is adding +0.55%, the Nasdaq +1.51%, and the S&P 500 +0.88%. Praise God for such a good day!
Dow gains 200 points, hits record on potential China trade truce: Live updates
Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +19.84% not including the days results which should put us over 20%. We thank God for that! Here are the latest posted results:
| 10/24/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.4360 | 20.9224 | 108.3960 | 102.2677 | 53.7252 |
| $ Change | 0.0023 | 0.0194 | 0.8543 | 0.9242 | 0.2093 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.09% | +0.79% | +0.91% | +0.39% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.17% | +1.93% | +2.39% | +0.97% |
| % Change month | +0.28% | +1.20% | +1.61% | +2.03% | +2.31% |
| % Change year | +3.64% | +7.41% | +16.64% | +13.44% | +28.23% |
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.