Good Morning, It seems that it’s an odd thing to say, but we exit the month of October as a successful month which is not always the case as it is historically one of the worst months for the market. So now we enter the month of November which is historically one of the best months for the market along with December and March with a little momentum. However, thanks to Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that a December rate cut is far from a foregone conclusion we also are facing some headwinds. I think since any rate decision by the Fed is or at least should be data driven that He should have just declined to comment. That would have been fine. Just let the market reach it’s own conclusion. Nevertheless investors will now double down on each and every piece of economic news through glasses tinted in the aspect of the Fed being inclined not to lower rates. This negative influence will do nothing but hold the market back from what undoubtedly would have been a record setting performance. Thank you Mr. Powell (Please note my sarcasm). So other than the intense focus on any inflation and employment data that’s out there, investors will be keeping a close eye on the remainder of the 4th quarter earnings reports with close attention given to companies tied to the AI sector which has led the market higher in 2025. There are many analysts that think the AI boom and massive spending by tech companies on AI have led to unsustainable valuations in the tech sector. I hear some of you new folks right now saying what in the heck are you talking about. Let me put it in simple terms that you will easily understand. AI and AI related stocks have become expensive and many analysts believe they are too expensive. There is also an important sidebar to the AI trade. Many investors are concerned that there will not be enough power to sustain the data centers that will be necessary to support AI. Availability of power could become the limiting factor for AI. Investors a dealing with this in two ways. They are either investing in Nuclear Power or they are rotating out of the sector entirely. This action is what caused the last dip in the market and will likely cause the next one as well. Make no mistake, AI is revolutionizing the world and will drive the market for years to come. So for the most part as AI goes so the market will go. That being the case if you want to get a feel for where the market is heading just keep an eye on AI, Nuclear Power, data centers, and quantum computing. If you do that you will have a pretty good idea how the major indices will move and knowledge of the major indices is what you must have to successfully invest in TSP.

The days trading up to this point has left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment is trading in the red at -0.66%. For comparison, the Dow is lower at -0.33%, the Nasdaq is higher at +0.62%, and the S&P 500 is slightly higher at +0.08%. At this point traders are buying the dip and beginning to move the market higher. We will see how the day goes……

Nasdaq rises to start November, pushed higher by Amazon and other AI leaders: Live updates

Last weeks action let us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S but will be entering an interfund transfer to move to 100/C. Our allocation is now +18.85% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results.

More Prices & Returns

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. Please click each link to view the respective chart. If you want to learn more about technical analysis check out the website StockCharts.com.

C Fund:

S Fund:

I Fund:

F Fund:

Okay, We have a solid sell signal in the S Fund. The Fed Chairmans statement clearly moved our charts and messed with our strategy. That said, we’re putting in an interfund transfer to 100/C effective at the close of business today. That’s all for this week. Have a nice day and may God continue to bless your trades!

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.